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Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?

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  • Filis, George

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship among consumer price index, industrial production, stock market and oil prices in Greece. Initially we use a unified statistical framework (cointegration and VECM) to study the data in levels. We then employ a multivariate VAR model to examine the relationship among the cyclical components of our series. The period of the study is from 1996:1 to 2008:6. Findings suggest that oil prices and the stock market exercise a positive effect on the Greek CPI, in the long run. Cyclical components analysis suggests that oil prices exercise significant negative influence to the stock market. In addition, oil prices are negatively influencing CPI, at a significant level. However, we find no effect of oil prices on industrial production and CPI. Finally, no relationship can be documented between the industrial production and stock market for the Greek market. The findings of this study are of particular interest and importance to policy makers, financial managers, financial analysts and investors dealing with the Greek economy and the Greek stock market.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

Volume (Year): 32 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 877-886

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Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:32:y:2010:i:4:p:877-886

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

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Keywords: Cyclical components VAR Oil prices Macroeconomic indicators Stock market;

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Cited by:
  1. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
  2. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
  3. George Filis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou, 2014. "Financial and monetary policy responses to oil price shocks: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 709-729, May.
  4. Mohanty, Sunil & Nandha, Mohan & Bota, Gabor, 2010. "Oil shocks and stock returns: The case of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) oil and gas sectors," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 358-372, December.
  5. Wen, Xiaoqian & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi, 2012. "Measuring contagion between energy market and stock market during financial crisis: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1435-1446.
  6. David C Broadstock & Rui Wang & Dayong Zhang, 2014. "The direct and indirect e ects of oil shocks on energy related stocks," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 146, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  7. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
  8. Rangan Gupta & Roula Inglesi-Lotz, 2012. "Macro Shocks and Real US Stock Prices with Special Focus on the "Great Recession"," Working Papers 201208, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  9. Chang, Kuang-Liang & Yu, Shih-Ti, 2013. "Does crude oil price play an important role in explaining stock return behavior?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 159-168.
  10. Baldi, Lucia & Peri, Massimo & Vandone, Daniela, 2014. "Clean energy industries and rare earth materials: Economic and financial issues," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 53-61.
  11. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Renatas Kizys, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market volatility: evidence from European data," Working Papers 161, Bank of Greece.
  12. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2014. "Dynamic Spillovers of Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp166, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.

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