IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhb/aarfin/2000_009.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Relation Between Asset Returns and Inflation at Short and Long Horizons

Author

Listed:

Abstract

In analyzing the relationship between expected stock and bond returns and expected inflation at short and long horizons, we measure multi-period expected returns and inflation from a vector-autoregressive (VAR) model involving only one-period variables. Thereby we circumvent the problems with near-nonstationarity of multi-period returns and inflation, and with the use of time-overlapping data. We apply the VAR approach on long-term US and Danish stock and bond market data, and the results in general point to large differences between these countries, and between stocks and bonds. Expected US bond returns and expected Danish stock returns move closely with expected inflation at long horizons but not at short horizons. For US stocks, by contrast, the relationship between expected returns and inflation is positive but quite weak at all horizons, which is in contrast to the results reported by Boudoukh and Richardson (1993): for US stock returns the Fisher model does not perform better as the horizon increases. Our results imply, however, that for US bonds and Danish stocks, the Fisher model's performance improves as the horizon increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2000. "The Relation Between Asset Returns and Inflation at Short and Long Horizons," Finance Working Papers 00-9, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhb:aarfin:2000_009
    Note: Later published in Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions & Money
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hha.dk/fin/finance/RESEARCH/D00_9_NEW_VERSION.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
    4. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-386.
    5. Richardson, Matthew & Stock, James H., 1989. "Drawing inferences from statistics based on multiyear asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 323-348, December.
    6. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
    7. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    8. Lund, Jesper & Engsted, Tom, 1996. "GMM and present value tests of the C-CAPM: evidence from the Danish, German, Swedish and UK stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 497-521, August.
    9. Solnik, Bruno & Solnik, Vincent, 1997. "A multi-country test of the Fisher model for stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 289-301, December.
    10. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    11. Barnes, Michelle & Boyd, John H. & Smith, Bruce D., 1999. "Inflation and asset returns," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 737-754, April.
    12. Boudoukh, Jacob & Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Stock Returns and Inflation: A Long-Horizon Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1346-1355, December.
    13. Gultekin, N Bulent, 1983. "Stock Market Returns and Inflation: Evidence from Other Countries," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 49-65, March.
    14. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2001. "The Danish stock and bond markets: comovement, return predictability and variance decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 243-271, July.
    15. Engsted, Tom, 1995. "Does the Long-Term Interest Rate Predict Future Inflation? A Multi-country Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 42-54, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Spierdijk, Laura & Umar, Zaghum, 2015. "Stocks, bonds, T-bills and inflation hedging: From great moderation to great recession," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-37.
    2. Engsted, Tom, 2002. "Measures of Fit for Rational Expectations Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 301-355, July.
    3. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 374-392.
    4. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2007. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 651-707.
    5. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
    6. James R. Lothian & Cornelia H.. McCarthy, 2001. "Equity Returns and Inflation: The Puzzlingly Long Lags," International Finance 0107003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Boudoukh, Jacob & Israel, Ronen & Richardson, Matthew, 2022. "Biases in long-horizon predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 937-969.
    8. Li, Yan & Ng, David T. & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 2013. "Predicting market returns using aggregate implied cost of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 419-436.
    9. Niyati Bhanja & Arif Billah Dar, 2019. "Stock returns and inflation: a tale of two periods in India," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 413-438, November.
    10. Belter, Klaus & Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2005. "A new daily dividend-adjusted index for the Danish stock market, 1985-2002: construction, statistical properties, and return predictability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 53-70, March.
    11. Geraldine Ryan, 2006. "Irish stock returns and inflation: a long span perspective," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(9), pages 699-706.
    12. Nassar S. Al-Nassar & Razzaque H. Bhatti, 2019. "Are common stocks a hedge against inflation in emerging markets?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 421-455, July.
    13. Abhay Abhyankar & Angelica Gonzalez, 2007. "What Drives Corporate Bond Market Betas?," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 157, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    14. E Bataa & D R Osborn & D H Kim, 2006. "A Further Examination of the Expectations Hypothesis for the Term Structure," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 72, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    15. Du, Ding, 2006. "Monetary policy, stock returns and inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 36-54.
    16. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2001. "The Danish stock and bond markets: comovement, return predictability and variance decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 243-271, July.
    17. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    18. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Grenadier, Steven R., 2010. "Stock and bond returns with Moody Investors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 867-894, December.
    19. Campbell, John Y., 2001. "Why long horizons? A study of power against persistent alternatives," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 459-491, December.
    20. Dragos Stefan Oprea, 2014. "The Fisher effect: Evidence from the Romanian Stock Market," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(5), pages 637-644, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fisher Hypothesis; Vector-autoregression;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhb:aarfin:2000_009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Helle Vinbaek Stenholt (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifhhadk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.