IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v11y2018i3p55-d170306.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Challenges and Vulnerabilities on Public Finance Sustainability. A Romanian Case Study

Author

Listed:
  • Ionel Bostan

    (Faculty of Law and Administrative Sciences, Stefan cel Mare University of Suceava, 13 Universităţii, 720229 Suceava, Romania)

  • Carmen Toderașcu

    (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, 11 Carol I, 700506 Iaşi, Romania)

  • Anca Florentina Gavriluţă (Vatamanu)

    (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi, 11 Carol I, 700506 Iaşi, Romania)

Abstract

Given the contradiction between the current demands for sustainability and the way that the financial system works, this paper explored in a retrospective and a prospective view, Romanian Public Finance Sustainability, highlighting the major challenges and vulnerabilities. Relating to the retrospective part, we concentrated mainly on empirical tests on Romanian government solvency between the period 1990–2020, by applying un it root and co-integration tests. To gain a better, general understanding of the behavior of policy-makers, in the second part we used a scenario analysis of budgetary adjustment in the short and medium run under alternative hypotheses. The results provided formal proof that policy makers decisions face critical and complex questions, and the way in which they manage fiscal stimuli has a direct implication on the sustainability of the country and on the lax implementation of fiscal policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ionel Bostan & Carmen Toderașcu & Anca Florentina Gavriluţă (Vatamanu), 2018. "Challenges and Vulnerabilities on Public Finance Sustainability. A Romanian Case Study," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-24, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:11:y:2018:i:3:p:55-:d:170306
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/11/3/55/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/11/3/55/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    2. Casper van Ewijk & Nick Draper & Harry ter Rele & Ed Westerhout, 2006. "Ageing and the sustainability of Dutch public finances," CPB Special Publication 61.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-44, March.
    4. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability: the Case of the European Union," Working Papers hal-00322086, HAL.
    5. Bohn, Henning, 1991. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits with Lump-Sum and with Income-Based Taxation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 580-604, August.
    6. Neyapti, Bilin & Bulut-Cevik, Zeynep Burcu, 2014. "Fiscal efficiency, redistribution and welfare," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 375-382.
    7. António Afonso & João Jalles, 2014. "A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 821-847, November.
    8. Vito Polito & Mike Wickens, 2005. "Measuring Fiscal Sustainability," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0503, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    9. Saveanu Tomina Gabriela, 2015. "Determinants Of Social Responsibility Expenditures Of Small And Medium Enterprises From Bihor County," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 567-575, July.
    10. Canagarajah, Sudharshan & Brownbridge, Martin & Paliu, Anca & Dumitru, Ionut, 2012. "The challenges to long run fiscal sustainability in Romania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5927, The World Bank.
    11. Luigi Landolfo, 2008. "Assessing the Sustainability of Fiscal Policies: Empirical Evidence from the Euro Area and the United States," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 305-326, November.
    12. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    13. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/29, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    14. Georgescu, George, 2013. "Public debt, sovereign risk and sustainable development of Romania," MPRA Paper 57256, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Mura Petru-Ovidiu, 2015. "Public Finance Sustainability In Romania. Recent Developments," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 757-769, July.
    16. Doina Maria Radulescu, 2003. "An Assessment of Fiscal Sustainability in Romania," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 259-275.
    17. Casper van Ewijk & Nick Draper & Harry ter Rele & Ed Westerhout, 2006. "Ageing and the sustainability of Dutch public finances," CPB Special Publication 61, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    18. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-223, May.
    19. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Mr. Andre O Santos, 2010. "Public Debt Sustainability and Management in a Compound Option Framework," IMF Working Papers 2010/002, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Ioan TalpoÅŸ & Cosmin Enache, 2008. "Fiscal Policy Sustainability In Romania," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(10), pages 1-23.
    21. Neaime, Simon, 2015. "Sustainability of budget deficits and public debts in selected European Union countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21.
    22. Badinger, Harald & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2015. "Measurement of fiscal rules: Introducing the application of partially ordered set (POSET) theory," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 108-123.
    23. Luigi Landolfo, 2008. "Assessing the sustainability of fiscal policies: Empirical evidence from the Euro Area and the United States," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 11, pages 305-326, November.
    24. Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2011. "Sovereign risk and debt sustainability: warning levels for Romania," MPRA Paper 32924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Evan Tanner & Issouf Samake, 2008. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(1), pages 149-182, April.
    26. Bergman, U. Michael & Hutchison, Michael M. & Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard, 2016. "Promoting sustainable public finances in the European Union: The role of fiscal rules and government efficiency," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-19.
    27. Maximiano Pinheiro, 2007. "MISS: A model for assessing the sustainability of public social security in Portugal," Working Papers o200703, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mura Petru-Ovidiu, 2015. "Public Finance Sustainability In Romania. Recent Developments," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 757-769, July.
    2. António Afonso & João Jalles, 2014. "A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 821-847, November.
    3. Afonso, António & Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "Assessing long-term fiscal developments: A new approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 130-146, February.
    4. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/29, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Jamel Saadaoui & Marco Chi Keung Lau & Yifei Cai, 2022. "Assessing Debt Stationarity and Sustainability in the Longer-Run with Fourier DF Unit Root Tests and Time-Varying Fiscal Reaction Functions," Working Papers 2022.07, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    6. Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2018. "Sustainability and comovement of government debt in EMU Countries: A panel data analysis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(1), pages 189-202, July.
    7. Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2012. "Fiscal Equalization Schemes and Fiscal Sustainability," ifo Working Paper Series 141, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Bystrov, Victor & Mackiewicz, Michał, 2020. "Recurrent explosive public debts and the long-run fiscal sustainability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 437-450.
    9. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2016. "The elusive character of fiscal sustainability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(28), pages 2651-2664, June.
    10. Munawar-Shah, Syed & Abdul-Majid, Mariani & Hussain-Shah, Syed, 2014. "Assessing Fiscal Sustainability for SAARC and IMT-GT Countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 5(2), pages 26-40.
    11. Campo Robledo, Jacobo, 2011. "Sostenibilidad fiscal: una aproximación con datos panel para 8 países Latinoaméricanos [Fiscal sustainability: A data panel approach for eight Latin American countries]," MPRA Paper 33091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2010. "Spend-and-Tax Adjustments and the Sustainability of the Government's Intertemporal Budget Constraint," CESifo Working Paper Series 2926, CESifo.
    13. Shruti SHASTRI & A.K. GIRI & Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA, 2017. "An empirical assessment of fiscal sustainability for selected South Asian economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 163-178, Spring.
    14. Hyejin Ko, 2020. "Measuring fiscal sustainability in the welfare state: fiscal space as fiscal sustainability," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 531-554, May.
    15. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    16. Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2018. "Fiscal Sustainability in the EU," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 46(3), pages 297-311, September.
    17. Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2019. "Government Expenditures and Revenues in Italy in a Long-run Perspective," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 361-375, June.
    18. António Afonso, 2009. "Neck, R. and Sturm, J.-E. (eds.): Sustainability of public debt," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 97(1), pages 95-96, May.
    19. Emilia Câmpeanu & Andreea Stoian, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Reaction in the Short Term for Assessing Fiscal Sustainability in the Long Runin Central and Eastern European Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 501-518, December.
    20. Miyazaki, Tomomi, 2014. "Fiscal reform and fiscal sustainability: Evidence from Australia and Sweden," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 141-151.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:11:y:2018:i:3:p:55-:d:170306. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.