This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Evan Tanner
Issouf Samake

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries—Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus required to keep the debt-GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50, 25, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than do frameworks currently in use. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 149–182; doi:10.1057/palgrave.imfsp.9450029; published online 12 February 2008

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp/journal/v55/n1/pdf/9450029a.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: Link to full text PDF
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp/journal/v55/n1/full/9450029a.html
File Format: text/html
File Function: Link to full text HTML
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan Journals in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
Pages: 149-182
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:55:y:2008:i:1:p:149-182

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/

Order Information:
Postal: Palgrave Macmillan Journals, Subscription Department, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, UK
Email:
Web: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/pal/subscribe/index.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Elizabeth Gale).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Marcio Garcia & Roberto Rigobon, 2004. "A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market's Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data," NBER Working Papers 10336, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Nouriel Roubini, 1991. "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt and Government Solvency: Evidence from OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 3658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Henning Bohn, . "Budget Balance Through Revenue or Spending Adjustments ? Some Historical Evidence for the United States (Reprint 013)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 3-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    Other versions:
  4. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Wilcox, David W, 1989. "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Markus Rodlauer & Alfred Schipke, 2005. "Central America: Global Integration and Regional Cooperation," IMF Occasional Papers 243, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Bohn, H., 1991. "Budget Balance Through Revenue or Spending Adjustments? Some Historical Evidence for the United States," Weiss Center Working Papers 3-91, Wharton School - Weiss Center for International Financial Research.
    Other versions:
  10. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-19, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. S. Rao Aiyagari & Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent & Juha Seppala, 2002. "Optimal Taxation without State-Contingent Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(6), pages 1220-1254, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Haug, Alfred A, 1991. "Cointegration and Government Borrowing Constraints: Evidence for the United States," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(1), pages 97-101, January.
  13. Feve, Patrick & Henin, Pierre-Yves, 2000. " Assessing Effective Sustainability of Fiscal Policy within the G-7," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(2), pages 175-95, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. McCallum, Bennett T, 1984. "Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 123-35, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2004. "Public Debt, Fiscal Solvency and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Latin America: The Cases of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, and Mexico," NBER Working Papers 10637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1990. "Seigniorage and tax smoothing in the United States 1914-1986," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 97-112, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-17, October.
  18. Xavier Debrun & Oya Celasun & Jonathan David Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Working Papers 06/67, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  19. Merih Uctum & Michael Wickens, 1996. "Debt and deficit ceilings, and sustainability of fiscal policies: an intertemporal analysis," Research Paper 9615, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Chari, V V & Christiano, Lawrence J & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1994. "Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(4), pages 617-52, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? All bibliographic data on IDEAS has been put in the public domain by the publishers.

This page was last updated on 2008-8-28.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.