IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/beo/journl/v64y2019i222p63-80.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact Of Fiscal Consolidation And Economic Growth On Debt: Evidence From India

Author

Listed:
  • Varun Chotia

Abstract

This paper analyses the chal-lenges debt reduction faces as a result of fis-cal consolidation and the effect of growth on India’s debt ratio. Simulations are con-ducted based on India’s current revenue and debt levels and project different cases of fiscal tightening and their effect on changes in debt stock with respect to the change in GDP, i.e., changes in the debt ratio. The es-timates for multipliers that are used in the Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) model are obtained empirically by giving shocks to fiscal instruments such as expen-diture and taxes. A non-technical approach to the SVAR methodology is used to anal-yse the dynamics of the studied framework by subjecting it to unexpected shocks. A more measured act of consolidation may be implemented in an attempt to normalise multiplier values in order to create an ap-propriate environment for reducing gov-ernment spending. The drawbacks include the limitations of the SVAR methodology such as the orthogonality condition, which makes the entire analysis fairly restrictive. The framework used for the analysis is a modern approach towards understanding macroeconomic trends and variables in the context of the Indian economy and seeks to apply recently developed analytical tools.

Suggested Citation

  • Varun Chotia, 2019. "The Impact Of Fiscal Consolidation And Economic Growth On Debt: Evidence From India," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(222), pages 63-80, July – Se.
    • Handle: RePEc:beo:journl:v:64:y:2019:i:222:p:63-80
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ekof.bg.ac.rs/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/590.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Born, Benjamin & Juessen, Falko & Müller, Gernot J., 2013. "Exchange rate regimes and fiscal multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 446-465.
    2. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
    3. Fernando Martin, 2009. "A Positive Theory of Government Debt," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(4), pages 608-631, October.
    4. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
    6. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Christophe André, 2006. "Has the Rise in Debt Made Households More Vulnerable?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 535, OECD Publishing.
    7. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2009. "How large are the effects of tax changes?," NBER Working Papers 15303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    9. Nicoletta Batini & Mr. Luc Eyraud & Lorenzo Forni & Miss Anke Weber, 2014. "Fiscal Multipliers: Size, Determinants, and Use in Macroeconomic Projections," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2014/004, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Mr. Luc Eyraud & Miss Anke Weber, 2013. "The Challenge of Debt Reduction during Fiscal Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 2013/067, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Mr. Julio Escolano, 2010. "A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2010/002, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Reda, Cherif & Fuad, Hasanov, 2010. "Public Debt Dynamics and Debt Feedback," MPRA Paper 27918, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
    14. Markus Kirchner & Jacopo Cimadomo & Sebastian Hauptmeier, 2010. "Transmission of Government Spending Shocks in the Euro Area: Time Variation and Driving Forces," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-021/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Sen, Swapan & Kasibhatla, Krishna M. & Stewart, David B., 2007. "Debt overhang and economic growth-the Asian and the Latin American experiences," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 3-11, March.
    16. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    17. Julio Escolano, 2010. "A Practical Guide to Public Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Sustainability, and Cyclical Adjustment of Budgetary Aggregates," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 10/02, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Nicoletta Batini & Luc Eyraud & Lorenzo Forni & Anke Weber, 2014. "Fiscal Multipliers; Size, Determinants, and Use in Macroeconomic Projections," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 14/04, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Evan Tanner & Issouf Samake, 2008. "Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt: A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(1), pages 149-182, April.
    20. Mathias Dolls & Clemens Fuest & Andreas Peichl, 2012. "Automatic stabilization and discretionary fiscal policy in the financial crisis," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 1(1), pages 1-19, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stanova, Nadja, 2015. "Effects of fiscal shocks in new EU members estimated from a SVARX model with debt feedback," MPRA Paper 63148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. György Molnár & Gábor Dániel Soós & Balázs Világi, 2017. "Fiscal Policy and the Business Cycle," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 16(4), pages 58-85.
    3. Mr. Luc Eyraud & Miss Anke Weber, 2013. "The Challenge of Debt Reduction during Fiscal Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 2013/067, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Thibault Lemaire, 2020. "Fiscal Consolidations and Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 20004, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    5. Ianc, Nicolae-Bogdan & Turcu, Camelia, 2020. "So alike, yet so different: Comparing fiscal multipliers across EU members and candidates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 278-298.
    6. Dell'Erba, Salvatore & Koloskova, Ksenia & Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos, 2018. "Medium-term fiscal multipliers during protracted economic contractions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 35-52.
    7. Hory, Marie-Pierre, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers in Emerging Market Economies: Can we learn something from Advanced Economies?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 59-84.
    8. Angela Köppl & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of Green Recovery Programmes. Conceptual Framing and a Review of the Empirical Literature," WIFO Working Papers 646, WIFO.
    9. El Mostafa Bentour, 2023. "On the government consumption multipliers evolvement over time: an SVAR analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(12), pages 1612-1617, July.
    10. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Metelli, Luca, 2017. "Is fiscal consolidation self-defeating? A panel-VAR analysis for the Euro area countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 147-164.
    11. Francisco Arizala & Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia & Charalambos G. Tsangarides & Mustafa Yenice, 2021. "The impact of fiscal consolidations on growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(1), pages 1-33, July.
    12. Jean-Marc Fournier, 2019. "A Buffer-Stock Model for the Government: Balancing Stability and Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 2019/159, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Sonya Georgieva, 2021. "Fiscal Multipliers in Bulgaria and Central and Eastern Europe Countries," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 131-167.
    14. Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão Rodrigues, 2020. "Uncertainty And The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In The United States And Brazil: Svar Approach," Working Papers REM 2020/0150, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    15. José U Mora & Rafael A Acevedo, 2018. "Modelo de Desarrollo Propio y su Potencial para la Construcción de Paz Territorial," Working Papers 39, Faculty of Economics and Management, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali.
    16. Nizam, Ahmed Mehedi, 2020. "Some Amendments to the Algebraic Representation and Empirical Estimation of the Fiscal Multipliers," MPRA Paper 104346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Keränen, Henri & Kuusi, Tero, 2016. "The EU’s Fiscal Targets and Their Economic Impact in Finland," ETLA Working Papers 33, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    18. Larch, Martin & Claeys, Peter & Van Der Wielen, Wouter, 2022. "The scarring effects of major economic downturns: The role of fiscal policy and government investment," EIB Working Papers 2022/14, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    19. Nicolae-Bogdan Ianc & Camelia Turcu, 2019. "So alike, yet so different: comparing fiscal multipliers across E(M)U candidates," Working Papers 2019.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    20. Fotiou, Alexandra & Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2020. "The fiscal state-dependent effects of capital income tax cuts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Tightening; Simula-tion; Debt/GDP ratio; Fiscal Sustainability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:beo:journl:v:64:y:2019:i:222:p:63-80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Goran Petrić (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/efbeoyu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.