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Is fiscal consolidation self-defeating? A Panel-VAR analysis for the Euro area countries

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  • Attinasi, Maria Grazia
  • Metelli, Luca

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of fiscal consolidation on the debt-to-GDP ratio of 11 Euro area countries. Using a quarterly fiscal Panel VAR allows us to trace out the dynamics of the debt-to-GDP ratio following a fiscal shock and to disentangle the main channels through which fiscal consolidation affects the debt ratio. We define a fiscal consolidation episode as self-defeating if the debt-to-GDP ratio does not decrease compared to the pre-shock level. Our main finding is that when consolidation is implemented via a cut in government primary spending, the debt ratio, after an initial increase, falls to below its pre-shock level. When instead the consolidation is implemented via an increase in government revenues, the initial increase in the debt ratio is stronger and, eventually, the debt ratio reverts to its pre-shock level, resulting in what we call self-defeating austerity. JEL Classification: E62, H6, C33

Suggested Citation

  • Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Metelli, Luca, 2016. "Is fiscal consolidation self-defeating? A Panel-VAR analysis for the Euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1883, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161883
    Note: 930374
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    2. Honda, Jiro & Tapsoba, René & Issifou, Ismael, 2022. "When do we repair the roof? Insights from responses to fiscal crisis early warning signals," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 349-367.
    3. Schnücker, A.M., 2019. "Penalized Estimation of Panel Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI-2019-33, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    4. Eduardo Garzón Espinosa & Bibiana Medialdea García & Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Approaches: An Inquiring Look From The Modern Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 999-1022, October.
    5. Favero, Carlo A. & ,, 2019. "Austerity and Public debt Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 14072, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Zhenshan Yang & Yinghao Pan & Dongqi Sun & Li Ma, 2022. "Human Capital and International Capital Flows: Evidence from China," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 45(1), pages 74-107, January.
    7. Róbert Oravský & Peter Tóth & Anna Bánociová, 2020. "The Ability of Selected European Countries to Face the Impending Economic Crisis Caused by COVID-19 in the Context of the Global Economic Crisis of 2008," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-17, August.
    8. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2023. "A quest between fiscal and market discipline," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    9. Eugene Msizi BUTHELEZI, 2023. "Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on Government Debt in South Africa: Evidence to Structural and Cyclical Effect," Journal of Economics and Financial Analysis, Tripal Publishing House, vol. 7(2), pages 1-23.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    debt trajectory; Fiscal consolidation; fiscal stress; panel VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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