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What Has Financed Government Debt?

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Author Info
Hess Chung () (Indiana University Bloomington)
Eric Leeper () (Indiana University Bloomington)

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Abstract

Equilibrium models imply that the real value of debt in the hands of the public must equal the expected present-value of surpluses. Empirical models of fiscal policy typically do not impose this condition and often do not even include debt. Absence of debt from empirical models can produce non-invertible representations, obscuring the true present-value relation, even if it holds in the data. First, we show that small VAR models of fiscal policy may not be invertible and that expanding the information set to include government debt has quantitatively important implications. Then we impose the present-value condition on an identified VAR and characterize the way in which the present-value support of debt varies across types of fiscal shocks. The role of expected primary surpluses in supporting innovations to debt depends on the nature of the shock. Debt is supported almost entirely by changes in the present-value of surpluses for some fiscal shocks, but for other fiscal shocks surpluses fail to adjust, leaving a large role for expected changes in discount rates. Horizons over which debt innovations are financed are long---on the order of 50 years or more.

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Paper provided by Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington in its series Caepr Working Papers with number 2007-015.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2007015

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Keywords: fiscal policy; present-value restriction; taxes; government spending;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Dario Caldara & Christophe Kamps, 2006. "What Do We Know About the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks? A Comparative Analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 257, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Eric M. Leeper, 1989. "Policy rules, information and fiscal effects in a "Ricardian" model," International Finance Discussion Papers 360, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  4. Sims, Christopher A., 1998. "Econometric implications of the government budget constraint," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 9-19. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
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  6. Chryssi Giannitsarou & Andrew Scott, 2006. "Inflation Implications of Rising Government Debt," NBER Working Papers 12654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization Of The Dynamic Effects Of Changes In Government Spending And Taxes On Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-19, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Susan Yang, Shu-Chun, 2005. "Quantifying tax effects under policy foresight," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1557-1568, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Canova, Fabio & Pappa, Evi, 2003. "Price Dispersions in Monetary Unions: The Role of Fiscal Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 3746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Carlo Favero & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Fiscal Policy Rules and Regime (In)Stability: Evidence from the U.S," Working Papers 282, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2007. "Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6092, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Thomas J. Sargent & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "ABCs (and Ds) of Understanding VARs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 1021-1026, June. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Troy Davig, 2005. "Periodically expanding discounted debt: a threat to fiscal policy sustainability?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 829-840. [Downloadable!]
  17. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Roland Straub & Günter Coenen, 2005. "Non-Ricardian Households and Fiscal Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 102, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  20. Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1994. "VAR analysis, nonfundamental representations, blaschke matrices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 307-325, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper, 2005. "Fluctuating Macro Policies and the Fiscal Theory," NBER Working Papers 11212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. M Saifur Rahman, 2008. "Should Dynamic Scoring be done with Heterogeneous Agent-Based Models? Challenging the Conventional Wisdom," Caepr Working Papers 2008-023, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington. [Downloadable!]
  2. Claeys Peter, 2008. "Estimating the effects of fiscal policy under the budget constraint," wp.comunite 0038, Department of Communication, University of Teramo. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Anchoring Fiscal Expectations," NBER Working Papers 15269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2008. "What are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 14551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Ricardo M. Sousa & António Afonso, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," NIPE Working Papers 22/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Dario Caldara & Christophe Kamps, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 877, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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