A Positive Theory of Government Debt
Abstract
A government that cannot commit to future policy choices faces a trade-off that explains the level of debt. On the one hand, there is an incentive to increase debt and delay taxation, so as to reduce current distortions. On the other hand, inflating current prices lowers the real value of nominal debt and so there is a motive to reduce it now. The size of long-run debt will depend on the interaction of these two opposing incentives. The critical determinant is the willingness of households to substitute away from goods being taxed by inflation. Numerical simulations show that the model matches some qualitative and quantitative properties of U.S. policy variables, including the fact that wars are frequently financed with a mix of instruments. The theory interprets the unusual post-World War II inflation and fast liquidation of accumulated debt as being due to higher long-run debt and expenditure in the period leading up to the war. (Copyright: Elsevier)Download Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic Info
Article provided by Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics in its journal Review of Economic Dynamics.
Volume (Year): 12 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 608-631
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Review of Economic Dynamics Academic Press Editorial Office 525 "B" Street, Suite 1900 San Diego, CA 92101
Fax: 1-860-486-4463
Email:
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/review.htm
More information through EDIRC
Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/RED17.htm
Related research
Keywords: Government debt; Time-consistency; Markov-perfect equilibrium;Other versions of this item:
- Fernando M. Martin, 2004. "A Positive Theory of Government Debt," Macroeconomics 0408013, EconWPA, revised 12 Oct 2004.
- Fernando Martin, 2009. "Code and data files for "A Positive Theory of Government Debt"," Computer Codes 07-47, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1997.
"Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1999. "Political economics and macroeconomic policy," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 22, pages 1397-1482 Elsevier.
- Persson, T. & Tabellini, G., 1997. "Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy," Papers 630, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 1997. "Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy," NBER Working Papers 6329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Persson, Torsten & Tabellini , Guido, 1997. "Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy," Seminar Papers 630, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, . "Political Economics and Macroeconomic Policy," Working Papers 121, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Douglas W. Elmendorf & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1998.
"Government debt,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669 Elsevier.
- Douglas W. Elmendorf & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1998. "Government Debt," NBER Working Papers 6470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Mankiw, N, 1999. "Government Debt," Scholarly Articles 2643866, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Douglas W. Elmendorf & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1998. "Government Debt," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1820, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Javier Díaz-Giménez & Giorgia Giovannetti & Ramon Marimon & Pedro Teles, 2004.
"Nominal debt as a burden on monetary policy,"
Working Paper Series
WP-04-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Giorgia Giovannetti & Ramon Marimon & Pedro Teles, 2008. "Nominal Debt as a Burden on Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 493-514, July.
- Giorgia Giovannetti & Ramon Marimon & Pedro Teles, 2000. "Nominal Debt as a Burden to Monetary Policy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1387, Econometric Society.
- Ramon Marimon & Javier Díaz-Giménez & Giorgia Giovannetti & Pedro Teles, 2007. "Nominal Debt as a Burden on Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Díaz-Giménez, Javier & Giovannetti, Giorgia & Marimon, Ramón & Teles, Pedro, . "Nominal debt as a burden on monetary policy," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/4974, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
- Javier Díaz-Giménez & Giorgia Giovannetti & Ramon Marimon & Pedro Teles, 2003. "Nominal debt as a burden on monetary policy," Economics Working Papers 841, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2006.
- Díaz-Giménez, Javier & Giovannetti, Giorgia & Marimon, Ramon & Teles, Pedro, 2007. "Nominal Debt as a Burden on Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Javier Díaz-Giménez & Giorgia Giovanetti & Ramon Marimon & Pedro Teles, 2003. "Nominal Debt as a Burden on Monetary Policy," Working Papers 8, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Javier Días-Giménez & Giorgia Giovannetti & Ramon Marimon & Pedro Teles, 2006. "Nominal Debt as a Burden on Monetary Policy," Working Papers w200606, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Giorgia Giovannetti & Ramon Marimon & Pedro Teles, 2007. "Nominal Debt as a Burden on Monetary Policy," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/53, European University Institute.
- Alberto F. Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1999.
"Budget Deficits and Budget Institutions,"
NBER Chapters,
in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 13-36
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Budget Deficits and Budget Institutions," IMF Working Papers 96/52, International Monetary Fund.
- Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1996. "Budget Deficits and Budget Institutions," NBER Working Papers 5556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J., 1974.
"Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?,"
Scholarly Articles
3451399, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
- S. Rao Aiyagari & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1997.
"The optimum quantity of debt,"
Staff Report
203, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Aiyagari, S. Rao & McGrattan, Ellen R., 1998. "The optimum quantity of debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 447-469, October.
- S. Rao Aiyagari & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1994. "The optimal quantity of debt," Working Papers 538, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Robert E. Lucas Jr. & Nancy L. Stokey, 1982.
"Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy in an Economy Without Capital,"
Discussion Papers
532, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
- Alesina, Alberto & Tabellini, Guido, 1990.
"A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 403-14, July.
- Tabellini, Guido & Alesina, Alberto, 1990. "A Positive Theory of Fiscal Deficits and Government Debt," Scholarly Articles 3612769, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Barro, Robert J., 1979.
"On the Determination of the Public Debt,"
Scholarly Articles
3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October.
- Klein, Paul & Krusell, Per & Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor, 2004.
"Time Consistent Public Expenditures,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4582, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Paul Klein & Per Krusell & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2004. "Time-Consistent Public Expenditures," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000652, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Marco Bassetto & Narayana Kocherlakota, 2010.
"On the Irrelevance of Government Debt When Taxes are Distortionary,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
506439000000000295, David K. Levine.
- Bassetto, Marco & Kocherlakota, Narayana, 2004. "On the irrelevance of government debt when taxes are distortionary," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 299-304, March.
- S. Rao Aiyagari & R. Anton Braun & Zvi Eckstein, 1995.
"Transaction services, inflation, and welfare,"
Working Papers
551, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- S. Rao Aiyagari & R. Anton Braun & Zvi Eckstein, 1998. "Transaction Services, Inflation, and Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1274-1301, December.
- S. Rao Aiyagari & R. Anton Braun & Zvi Eckstein, 1998. "Transaction services, inflation, and welfare," Staff Report 241, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Aiyagari, S.R. & Braum, T. & Eckstein, Z., 1995. "Transaction Services, Inflation and Welfare," Papers 27-95, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
- Albert Marcet & Andrew Scott, 2001.
"Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets,"
Economics Working Papers
558, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2003.
- Marcet, Albert & Scott, Andrew, 2009. "Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 473-501, March.
- Albert Marcet & Andrew Scott, 2003. "Debt and Deficit Fluctuations and the Structure of Bond Markets," Working Papers 171, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Marcet, Albert & Scott, Andrew, 2001. "Debt and Deficit Fluctuations and the Structure of Bond Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 3029, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Albert Marcet & Andrew Scott, 2007. "Debt and Deficit Fluctuations and the Structure of Bond Markets," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 728.08, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Albert Marcet & Albert Scott, 2007. "Debt and Deficit Fluctuations and the Structure of Bond Markets," Working Papers 332, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963, August.
- Cooley, Thomas F & Hansen, Gary D, 1991.
"The Welfare Costs of Moderate Inflations,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 483-503, August.
- Thomas F. Cooley & Gary D. Hansen, 1991. "The welfare costs of moderate inflations," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 483-518.
- Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D., 1991. "The Welfare Costs of Moderate Inflations," Papers 90-04, Rochester, Business - General.
- Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D., 1991. "The Welfare Costs of Moderate Inflations," RCER Working Papers 266, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Andrés Erosa & Gustavo Ventura, 2000.
"On Inflation as a Regressive Consumption Tax,"
UWO Department of Economics Working Papers
20001, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Erosa, Andres & Ventura, Gustavo, 2002. "On inflation as a regressive consumption tax," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 761-795, May.
- Svensson, Lars E O, 1985. "Money and Asset Prices in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(5), pages 919-44, October.
- Martin, Fernando M., 2010. "Markov-perfect capital and labor taxes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 503-521, March.
- Robert E. Lucas, Jr., 2000. "Inflation and Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 247-274, March.
- Per Krusell & Fernando M. Martin & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2006. "Time Consistent Debt," 2006 Meeting Papers 210, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Eisner, Robert & Pieper, Paul J, 1986. "A New View of the Federal Debt and Budget Deficits: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1156-57, December.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:issued:07-47For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

