Sovereign risk and debt sustainability: warning levels for Romania
AbstractDespite the governments took rescue and/or stimulus packages, signs of recovery occurring in 2009 and 2010, the global growth sustainability seems uncertain. Romania was hit hard by the crisis, suffering a severe contraction of the economy, estimated at 7.1 percent in 2009. The worsening of the external and internal financial framework of Romania and the danger of a currency market crisis urged the need for a financing agreement with IMF. The study shows that an excessive burden of external debt compared with financing resources needed to comply with the external payments obligations would maintain Romania on the brink of default risk. Collateral risks associated with unfavorable developments of Eurozone and also with pressures coming from a non-restructured public debt could make the default situation even unavoidable.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 32924.
Date of creation: Mar 2011
Date of revision:
financial crisis; global recession; anti-crisis measures; public debt; debt sustainability; sovereign risk;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003.
NBER Working Papers
9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Albu, Lucian-Liviu, 2008. "A simulation model of public debt sustainability," MPRA Paper 11713, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Zaman, Gheorghe & Goschin, Zizi, 2010. "Technical Change as Exogenous or Endogenous Factor in the Production Function Models. Empirical Evidence from Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 29-45, July.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008.
"This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
13882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," CEMA Working Papers 595, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Rocher, E., 2007. "New borrowing post-debt relief: risks and challenges for developing countries," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 07, pages 35-48, Spring.
- Dale F. Gray & Elena Loukoianova & Samuel W. Malone & Cheng Hoon Lim, 2008. "A Risk-Based Debt Sustainability Framework: Incorporating Balance Sheets and Uncertainty," IMF Working Papers 08/40, International Monetary Fund.
- Marco Arnone & Luca Bandiera & Andrea Presbitero, 2005. "External Debt Sustainability: Theory and Empirical Evidence," International Finance 0512007, EconWPA.
- Cole, Harold L & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1998. "Models of Sovereign Debt: Partial versus General Reputations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(1), pages 55-70, February.
- Georgescu, George, 2007. "Current Account Deficits and Implications on Country Risk of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(4), pages 88-96, December.
- Gheorghe Zaman & George Georgescu, 2010. "Romania’s External Debt Sustainability Under Crisis Circumstances," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 30(1(39)), pages 5-38, June.
- Luis Catão & Sandeep Kapur, 2006. "Volatility and the Debt-Intolerance Paradox," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 1.
- Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
- Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2009. "Structural Fund Absorption: A New Challenge For Romania?," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(1), pages 136-154, March.
- Andrea Ferrero, 2007. "The long-run determinants of U.S. external imbalances," Staff Reports 295, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- HÃ©lÃ¨ne Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2004. "What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?," IMF Working Papers 04/15, International Monetary Fund.
- Udaibir S. Das & Michael G. Papaioannou & Christoph Trebesch, 2010. "Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 10/10, International Monetary Fund.
- Georgescu, George, 2012.
"Impactul crizei globale asupra structurii comerţului exterior al României
[The Global Crisis Impact on Romanian Trade Structure]," MPRA Paper 36339, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- George GEORGESCU, 2012. "Changes In The Pattern Of Romania’S Foreign Trade Under The Global Crisis Impact," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 35(2(44)), pages 139-159, December.
- Georgescu, George, 2013.
"Echilibrul financiar global şi riscul suveran în perioada post-criză
[The Global Financial Balance and Post-Crisis Sovereign Risk]," MPRA Paper 50772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- George GEORGESCU, 2013. "Volatility Of International Financial Markets And Public Debt Sustainability," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 37(2(46)), pages 135-152, December.
- Georgescu, George, 2012.
"Fluxurile ISD in contextul crizei globale
[The FDI flows under the global crisis effects]," MPRA Paper 40842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Georgescu, George, 2013.
"România în perioada post-criză: investiţiile străine directe şi efecte asupra echilibrului financiar extern
[Romania in post-crisis period: foreign direct investments and effects on external ," MPRA Paper 46531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.