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Current Account Deficits and Implications on Country Risk of Romania

Author

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  • Georgescu, George

    (Senior Researcher, Institute of National Economy, Romanian Academy)

Abstract

This study focuses on the implications of current account deficit upon the external debt increase in Romania, revealing higher risks for the sustainability of its international financial position. Considering the trade deficit as a main cause of current account balance deterioration, several exports weaknesses are pointed out, mostly resulted from neglecting both slowing IPT flows and growing FDI stock adverse effects. Under the circumstances of diminishing contribution of compensatory flows to the current account deficit coverage, an increasing share of autonomous flows is expected. But an excessive rise in the long-term external debt, including its service level, could have negative effects on Romania’s country rating, i.e. on the external financing costs and borrowing ceiling of the international capital markets. For preventing a possible financial turmoil turning into a “hard landing” of the economy the Romanian, firstly by admitting the risks occurring from current account deficits and accelerated debt accumulation, by sound monetary and fiscal policies, promoting structural reform and exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Georgescu, George, 2007. "Current Account Deficits and Implications on Country Risk of Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 4(4), pages 88-96, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v:4:y:2007:i:4:p:88-96
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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_07_6/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002. "Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
    2. Georgescu, George, 2007. "Deficitul de cont curent: Maladie cronică a economiei româneşti ? [Current Account Deficits: A Chronic Disease of the Romanian Economy?]," MPRA Paper 24851, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals, and Sudden Stops," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 1-49, June.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Georgescu, George, 2006. "Inward Processing Trade and Implications for the Balance of Payments Current Account (The Case of Romania)," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 3(1), pages 24-31, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniela L. Constantin, 2012. "Responses to global trends affecting East-European regions: The case of the Bucharest–Ilfov region in Romania," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 47-64, March.
    2. Antonescu, Daniela, 2015. "Empirical analysis of foreign direct investments at NUTS 2 region, in European Union and Romania," MPRA Paper 65140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Georgescu, George, 2012. "Impactul crizei globale asupra structurii comerţului exterior al României [The Global Crisis Impact on Romanian Trade Structure]," MPRA Paper 36339, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Marian Dobranschi, 2010. "The sustainability of public debt in Romania in economic and financial crisis," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 15.
    5. Georgescu, George, 2013. "România în perioada post-criză: investiţiile străine directe şi efecte asupra echilibrului financiar extern [Romania in post-crisis period: foreign direct investments and effects on external financ," MPRA Paper 46531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2011. "Sovereign risk and debt sustainability: warning levels for Romania," MPRA Paper 32924, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Silvia DEDU, 2015. "The Impact of Solvency II Directive upon the Perspectives of the Horizon 2020 Programme," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 41(2(50)), pages 145-155, december.
    8. Susanu, Monica, 2009. "Convergence to EMU through the Test of the Public Finance –Romania’s Budgetary Deficit and Public Debt," MPRA Paper 20480, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Zaman Gheorghe, 2011. "Challenges, Vulnerabilities And Ways Of Approach In Romania'S External Debt Sustainability," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(special), pages 11-44, July.
    10. Georgescu, George, 2012. "Fluxurile ISD in contextul crizei globale [The FDI flows under the global crisis effects]," MPRA Paper 40842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. George GEORGESCU, 2012. "Changes In The Pattern Of Romania’S Foreign Trade Under The Global Crisis Impact," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 35(2(44)), pages 139-159, December.
    12. Georgescu, George, 2016. "The world trade data distortion and its contagious impact. A brief comment on the WTO “Made in the World” initiative," MPRA Paper 69483, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Foreign Trade; Foreign Direct Investments; Current Account; Balance of Payments; External debt; Economic Growth; Country Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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