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Exchange rate regimes, saving glut and the Feldstein–Horioka puzzle: The East Asian experience

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  • Kaya-Bahçe, Seçil
  • Özmen, Erdal
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    Abstract

    This paper investigates whether the recent experience of the emerging East Asian countries with current account surpluses is consistent with the “saving glut” hypothesis and the Feldstein and Horioka puzzle. The evidence suggests that the saving retention coefficients declined substantially in most of the countries after an endogenous break date coinciding with a major exchange rate regime change with the 1997–1998 crisis. Exchange rate flexibility appears to be enhancing financial integration. The results are consistent with an “investment slump” explanation rather than the “saving glut” postulation.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437108000344
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

    Volume (Year): 387 (2008)
    Issue (Month): 11 ()
    Pages: 2561-2564

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:387:y:2008:i:11:p:2561-2564

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    Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/

    Related research

    Keywords: Capital mobility; Current account imbalance; East Asia; Exchange rate regimes; Parameter stability; Structural breaks;

    References

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    1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007. "Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June.
    2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 343, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979. "Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 297., Boston College Department of Economics.
    6. Lucio Sarno & Mark Taylor, 1998. "Exchange controls, international capital flows and saving-investment correlations in the UK: An empirical investigation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 69-98, March.
    7. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    8. Assaf Razin & Yona Rubinstein, 2006. "Evaluation of currency regimes: the unique role of sudden stops," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 119-152, 01.
    9. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals, and Sudden Stops," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 1-49, June.
    10. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jerry Coakley & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "Is the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle History?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(5), pages 569-590, 09.
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