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Fiscal Adjustments and the Probability of Sovereign Default

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  • Christoph A. Schaltegger
  • Martin Weder

Abstract

type="main"> Based on probit estimates, this paper analyzes the effects of fiscal consolidation on the probability of sovereign default in the short run. Using a panel of 104 developing countries from 1980 to 2009 and controlling for various economic, fiscal and political factors, we find that fiscal adjustments in general do not significantly reduce the probability of default even if they are large. Instead, the composition of budget consolidation is decisive in reducing default risk. Expenditure based adjustments are not successful while revenue based adjustments lower the probability of default in the following year by 36 to 55 percent. This finding also holds when economic growth is low or government debt is high as well as when IMF lending is taken into account.

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  • Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2015. "Fiscal Adjustments and the Probability of Sovereign Default," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 81-110, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:68:y:2015:i:1:p:81-110
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    3. Christophe Blot & Jerôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Xavier Timeau, 2015. "Back to fiscal consolidation in Europe and its dual tradeoff : now of later, through spending cuts or tax hikes," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2015-11, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    4. Bardaka, Ioanna & Bournakis, Ioannis & Kaplanoglou, Georgia, 2021. "Total factor productivity (TFP) and fiscal consolidation: How harmful is austerity?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 908-922.
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    6. Wildmer Daniel Gregori & Luigi Marattin, 2019. "Determinants of fiscal distress in Italian municipalities," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1269-1281, April.
    7. Horn, Fabian, 2015. "Quantifying the costs of sovereign defaults using odious debt cases as a quasi-natural experiment," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113125, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2014. "Fiscal adjustment and the costs of public debt service: evidence from OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(22), pages 2593-2610, August.
    9. Akeem Rahaman & Scott Mark Romeo Mahadeo, 2024. "Constructing country-specific debt sustainability indices for developing countries," Working Papers in Economics & Finance 2024-01, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth Business School, Economics and Finance Subject Group.
    10. Arazmuradov, Annageldy, 2016. "Assessing sovereign debt default by efficiency," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 100-113.
    11. Gilles Dufrénot & Anne-Charlotte Paret, 2018. "Sovereign debt in emerging market countries: not all of them are serial defaulters," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(59), pages 6406-6443, December.
    12. Gootjes, Bram & de Haan, Jakob, 2022. "Do fiscal rules need budget transparency to be effective?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    13. Karim Triki, 2016. "Expenditure-based Consolidation: Experiences and Outcomes – Workshop proceedings," European Economy - Discussion Papers 026, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    14. Rho, Caterina & Saenz, Manrique, 2021. "Financial stress and the probability of sovereign default," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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