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The Phasing of Fiscal Adjustments: What Works in Emerging Market Economies?

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Author Info

  • Emanuele Baldacci
  • Benedict Clements
  • Sanjeev Gupta
  • Carlos Mulas-Granados

Abstract

This paper investigates the political and economic determinants of successful fiscal adjustment in 25 emerging market economies from 1980 to 2001. The results show that large and back-loaded fiscal adjustments have the highest likelihood of success. Fiscal consolidations based on expenditure cuts increase the probability of approaching and achieving fiscal sustainability but are insufficient to maintain it unless accompanied by revenue reforms. Adjustment episodes launched in countries where governments enjoy a parliamentary majority and do not face imminent elections, are found to be more successful. Fiscal consolidations undertaken under IMF-supported programs also have a higher probability of success. Copyright � 2006 International Monetary Fund; Journal compilation � 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 10 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 612-631

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Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:10:y:2006:i:4:p:612-631

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1363-6669

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Cited by:
  1. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Lars P. Feld, 2007. "Are Fiscal Adjustments less Successful in Decentralized Governments?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2007-06, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
  2. Schaltegger, Christoph & Weder, Martin, 2013. "Fiscal Adjustments and the Probability of Sovereign Default," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79979, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  3. Eichler, Stefan & Hofmann, Michael, 2013. "Sovereign default risk and decentralization: Evidence for emerging markets," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 113-134.

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