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Politics and Perceived Country Creditworthiness in International Banking

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  • Brewer, Thomas L
  • Rivoli, Pietra
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    Abstract

    This paper marks a departure from most previous studies of country creditworthiness in international banking because it incorporates systematically generated quantitative indicators of political instability in the analysis. The authors empirically test for the effects of political instability on perceived country creditworthiness using data on thirty heavily indebted developing countries for the period 1967-86. In addition to economic factors, they examine the effects of three types of political instability--regime change, political legitimacy, and armed conflict. The authors also distinguish between proximate instability and chronic instability. They find significant effects of proximate instability--particularly in governmental regime--on indicators of countries' perceived creditworthiness. Copyright 1990 by Ohio State University Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

    Volume (Year): 22 (1990)
    Issue (Month): 3 (August)
    Pages: 357-69

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    Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:22:y:1990:i:3:p:357-69

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    Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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    Cited by:
    1. Demir, Firat, 2006. "Volatility of short term capital flows and socio-political instability in Argentina, Mexico and Turkey," MPRA Paper 1943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Picard, Pierre M., 2006. "Infrastructure and public utilities privatization in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3950, The World Bank.
    3. Gabriel Cuadra & Horacio Sapriza, 2006. "Sovereign Default, Interest Rates and Political Uncertainty in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 2006-02, Banco de México.
    4. Aron, Janine, 2002. "Building Institutions in Post-Conflict African Economies," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Nath, Hiranya K., 2009. "Country Risk Analysis: A Survey of the Quantitative Methods," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 62(1), pages 69-94.
    6. Morales, Jorge & Tuesta, Pedro, 1998. "Calificaciones de crédito y riesgo país," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 3.
    7. McKenzie, David, 2002. "An econometric analysis of IBRD creditworthiness," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2822, The World Bank.
    8. Rivoli, Pietra & Brewer, Thomas L., 1997. "Political instability and country risk," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 309-321.
    9. Aron, Janine, 2000. "Growth and Institutions: A Review of the Evidence," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(1), pages 99-135, February.
    10. Islam, Roumeen & Montenegro, Claudio E., 2002. "What determines the quality of institutions?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2764, The World Bank.

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