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What sustains fiscal consolidations in emerging market countries?

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  • Sanjeev Gupta

    (International Monetary Fund, USA)

  • Emanuele Baldacci

    (International Monetary Fund, USA)

  • Benedict Clements

    (International Monetary Fund, USA)

  • Erwin R. Tiongson

    (International Monetary Fund, USA)

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    Abstract

    This paper examines the factors affecting the persistence of fiscal consolidation in 25 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It proposes a new approach for defining spells of fiscal consolidation. The results indicate that the probability of ending a fiscal adjustment is affected by the legacy of previous fiscal failures, the size of the deficit, the composition of spending and level of total revenues. There is also some evidence that the initial debt stock, exchange rate developments, inflation and the unemployment rate have an impact on the persistence of adjustments. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal International Journal of Finance & Economics.

    Volume (Year): 10 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 307-321

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    Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:10:y:2005:i:4:p:307-321

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    Cited by:
    1. Schaltegger, Christoph & Weder, Martin, 2013. "Fiscal Adjustments and the Probability of Sovereign Default," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79979, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Sanjeev Gupta & Amine Mati & Emanuele Baldacci, 2008. "Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 08/259, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Alex Segura-Ubiergo & Alejandro Simone & Sanjeev Gupta & Qiang Cui, 2010. "New Evidence on Fiscal Adjustment and Growth in Transition Economies," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 18-37, March.
    4. Murtaza H. Syed & Michael Skaarup & Tarhan Feyzioglu, 2008. "Addressing Korea's Long-Term Fiscal Challenges," IMF Working Papers 08/27, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mati, Amine & Thornton, John, 2008. "The exchange rate and fiscal consolidation episodes in emerging market economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 115-118, July.
    6. Robert Lavigne, 2006. "The Institutional and Political Determinants of Fiscal Adjustment," Working Papers 06-1, Bank of Canada.
    7. Ali Bayar & Bram Smeets, 2009. "Government Deficits in the European Union: An Analysis of Entry and Exit Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 2703, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Sanjeev Gupta & Carlos Mulas-Granados & Emanuele Baldacci, 2009. "How Effective is Fiscal Policy Response in Systemic Banking Crises?," IMF Working Papers 09/160, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & Emanuele Baldacci & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2004. "Front-Loaded or Back-Loaded Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Working Papers 04/157, International Monetary Fund.
    10. World Bank, 2008. "Nicaragua : Public Expenditure Review 2001-2006," World Bank Other Operational Studies 8090, The World Bank.
    11. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2014. "The Effect of Development Aid Unpredictability and Migrants’ Remittances on Fiscal Consolidation in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 168-190.
    12. Mohamed Fenira, 2014. "Democracy: A Determinant Factor in Reducing Inflation," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 363-375.

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