Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

EU fiscal consolidation after the financial crisis. Lessons from past experiences

Contents:

Author Info

  • Salvador Barrios
  • Sven Langedijk
  • Lucio Pench

Abstract

Summary for non-specialistsThe global financial crisis has led to a sharp deterioration of EU countries' public finances. Views are split regarding the most appropriate consolidation strategy to follow, in particular considering: the timing of fiscal consolidation in relation to the path of economic recovery reflecting (a) the trade-off between consolidation and stabilisation; (b) fiscal consolidation in the context of a distressed banking system where the credit channel is hampered and without which economic recovery can hardly take place, (c) the absence of exchange rate adjustment in the euro area which could make it more difficult for countries with competitiveness problems to achieve successful fiscal consolidation. The existing literature on fiscal consolidations provides only partial evidence on these issues.In this paper our objective is to focus on the above points of discussion drawing on EU (and non-EU OECD) experiences during the period 1970-2008. We estimate econometrically the determinants of successful fiscal consolidations and show that: (i) in presence of a systemic financial crisis, the repair of the banking sector is a pre-condition for a fiscal consolidation to succeed in reducing debt levels (ii) even after the banking sector is repaired, fiscal consolidations are usually less successful than in absence of financial crises, although more vigorous fiscal consolidations (i.e. cold shower) tend to yield higher results (iii) current debt dynamics in the EU are very unfavourable and in some cases, coupled with rising debt servicing costs and much deteriorated growth outlook warranting differentiated consolidation strategies across EU countries (iv) We do not find conclusive evidence in support of exchange rates (including real exchange rate) depreciation/devaluation as enhancing the success of fiscal consolidation as their effect appear to be low and insignificant.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/economic_paper/2010/pdf/ecp418_en.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 418.

as in new window
Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0418

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Coomunivcations Unit, B-1049 Bruxelles / Brussels
Fax: +32 2 298.08.23
Email:
Web page: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/index_en.htm
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Fiscal consolidation financial crisis debt barrios langedijk pench;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Xavier Debrun & Laurent Moulin & Alessandro Turrini & Joaquim Ayuso-i-Casals & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2008. "Tied to the mast? National fiscal rules in the European Union," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 23, pages 297-362, 04.
  2. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. von Hagen, Jurgen & Strauch, Rolf R, 2001. " Fiscal Consolidations: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Success," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 109(3-4), pages 327-46, December.
  7. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Alexander Plekhanov & Manmohan S. Kumar & Daniel Leigh, 2007. "Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Working Papers 07/178, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Hjelm, Goran, 2002. " Effects of Fiscal Contractions: The Importance of Preceding Exchange Rate Movements," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(3), pages 423-41, September.
  10. Andrea Boltho & Andrew Glyn, 2006. "Prudence or Profligacy: Deficits, Debt, and Fiscal Consolidation," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 411-425, Autumn.
  11. Drazen, A. & Grilli, V., 1991. "The Benefits of Crisis for Economic Reforms," Papers 27-91, Tel Aviv.
  12. Lane, Philip R. & Perotti, Roberto, 1998. "The trade balance and fiscal policy in the OECD," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 887-895, May.
  13. Fabian Valencia & Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 08/224, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Rudiger Ahrend & Pietro Catte & Robert W.R. Price, 2006. "Interactions Between Monetary and Fiscal Policy: How Monetary Conditions Affect Fiscal Consolidation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 521, OECD Publishing.
  15. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," Scholarly Articles 11129154, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  16. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2013. "Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies," IMF Working Papers 13/238, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Haroon Mumtaz & Nitin Kumar, 2012. "An application of data-rich environment for policy analysis of the Indian economy," Joint Research Papers 2, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.
  3. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2013. "Lessons Learned from Tax versus Expenditure Based Fiscal Consolidation in the European Transition Economies," MPRA Paper 46792, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "What determines the duration of a fiscal consolidation program?," NIPE Working Papers 17/2012, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  5. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard, 2011. "Saving imbalances and the euro area sovereign debt crisis," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(Sept).
  6. European Commission, 2012. "Tax reforms in EU Member States - Tax policy challenges for economic growth and fiscal sustainability – 2012 Report," Taxation Papers 34, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
  7. Margit Molnár, 2012. "Fiscal consolidation: What factors determine the success of consolidation efforts?," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2012(1), pages 123-149.
  8. António Afonso & João Tovar-Valles, 2011. "Measuring the Success of Fiscal Consolidations," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/22, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  9. João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2011. "The Fundamentals of the Portuguese Crisis," GEMF Working Papers 2011-16, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  10. Vanda Almeida & Gabriela Lopes de Castro & Ricardo Mourinho Félix & José R. Maria, 2011. "Fiscal Consolidation in a Small Euro Area Economy," Working Papers w201105, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  11. Charles Amo Yartey & Machiko Narita & Garth Peron Nicholls & Joel Chiedu Okwuokei, 2012. "The Challenges of Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Reduction in the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 12/276, International Monetary Fund.
  12. David Lodge & Marta Rodriguez-Vives, 2013. "How long can austerity persist? The factors that sustain fiscal consolidations," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 2(1), pages 5-24, June.
  13. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2014. "Assessing fiscal episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 255-270.
  14. Emanuele Baldacci & Sanjeev Gupta & Carlos Mulas-Granados, 2012. "Reassessing the fiscal mix for successful debt reduction," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 27(71), pages 365-406, 07.
  15. Rajmund Mirdala, 2013. "Lessons Learned from Tax vs. Expenditure Based Fiscal Consolidation in the European Transition Economies," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp1058, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  16. Paul den Noord, 2011. "Turning the page? EU fiscal consolidation in the wake of the crisis," Empirica, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 19-51, February.
  17. Irina BILAN & Florin OPREA, 2012. "EU fiscal consolidation strategies in times of crisis – comparative approaches," Anale. Seria Stiinte Economice. Timisoara, Faculty of Economics, Tibiscus University in Timisoara, vol. 0, pages 887-894, May.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0418. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ECFIN INFO).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.