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Budgetary and External Imbalances Relationship : a Panel Data Diagnostic

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  • António Afonso
  • Christophe Rault

Abstract

We assess the cointegration relationship between current account and budget balances, and effective real exchange rates, using recent bootstrap panel cointegration techniques and SUR methods. We investigate the magnitude of the relationship between the two imbalances for each country for the period 1970-2007, and for different EU and OECD country groupings. The panel cointegration tests used allow for within and between correlation, while the SUR results show both positive and negative effects of budget balances on current account balances for several countries. The magnitude of the effects varies across countries, and there is no evidence pointing to a direct and close relationship between budgetary and current account balances.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2008/45.

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Date of creation: Oct 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp452008

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Postal: Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL
Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

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Keywords: budget balance; external balance; EU; panel cointegration.;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jude C. Eggoh & Chrysost Bangaké & Christophe Rault, 2011. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Revisited in African Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 3590, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Brissimis, Sophocles & Hondroyiannis, George & Papazoglou, Christos & Tsaveas, Nicholas & Vasardani, Melina, 2011. "The determinants of current account imbalances in the Euro Area: a panel estimation approach," MPRA Paper 35362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Bootstrap Panel Granger-Causality between Government Budget and External Deficits for the EU," CESifo Working Paper Series 2581, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric & Rault, Christophe, 2013. "Equity risk premium and regional integration," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 79-85.
  5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Volatility and International Financial Integration: A Dynamic GMM Panel Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 3645, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "The dynamic linkages of fiscal and current account deficits: New evidence from five highly indebted European countries accounting for regime shifts and asymmetries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 502-510.
  7. Yoichi Matsubayashi, 2010. "Budget Deficits and Current Account in Japan and the U.S.: An Empirical Evidence on the Twin Deficits Hypothesis," Discussion Papers 1010, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
  8. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Short and Long-run Behaviour of Long-term Sovereign Bond Yields," CESifo Working Paper Series 3249, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Aristovnik, Aleksander & Djurić, Sandra, 2010. "Twin deficits and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: a comparison of the EU member states and candidate countries," MPRA Paper 24149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Olivier Gervais & Lawrence Schembri & Lena Suchanek, 2011. "External Stability, Real Exchange Rate Adjustment and the Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging-Market Economies," Discussion Papers 11-5, Bank of Canada.

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