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Bootstrap panel granger-causality between government budget and external deficits for the EU

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  • Christophe Rault

    () (LEO, University of Orléans and Research Fellow, BEM Bordeaux Management School)

  • António Afonso

    () (ECB and ISEG/UTL)

Abstract

We investigate the existence of Granger-causality between current account and government budget balances over the period 1970-2007, for different EU and OECD country groupings. We use a panel-data approach based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. Our results show a causal relation from budget deficits to current account deficits for several EU countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Italy, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia, along the lines of the so-called twin-deficit relationship. Considering the effective real exchange rate in the SUR system does not substantially alter the results.

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File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2009/Volume29/EB-09-V29-I2-P50.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 29 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 1027-1034

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00032

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Keywords: panel causality tests; budget deficit; external imbalance; real exchange rates;

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  1. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
  2. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2000. "Current account dynamics and expected future budget deficits: some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-271, April.
  3. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1988. "Budget Deficits and the Balance of Trade," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy: Volume 2, pages 1-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2005. "Twin Deficits: Squaring Theory, Evidence and Common Sense," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/22, European University Institute.
  5. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Budgetary and External Imbalances Relationship: A Panel Data Diagnostic," CESifo Working Paper Series 2559, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Konya, Laszlo, 2006. "Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 978-992, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Rault, Christophe & Sova, Robert & Sova, Anamaria, 2012. "Environmental Regulation and Competitiveness: Evidence from Romania," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 130-139.
  2. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Adel Ben Youssef & Hatem M'Henni & Christophe Rault, 2012. "Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in Middle East and North African Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 3726, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Volatility and International Financial Integration: A Dynamic GMM Panel Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 3645, CESifo Group Munich.

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