Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Bootstrap panel granger-causality between government budget and external deficits for the EU

Contents:

Author Info

  • Christophe Rault

    ()
    (LEO, University of Orléans and Research Fellow, BEM Bordeaux Management School)

  • António Afonso

    ()
    (ECB and ISEG/UTL)

Abstract

We investigate the existence of Granger-causality between current account and government budget balances over the period 1970-2007, for different EU and OECD country groupings. We use a panel-data approach based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. Our results show a causal relation from budget deficits to current account deficits for several EU countries: Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, France, Italy, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia, along the lines of the so-called twin-deficit relationship. Considering the effective real exchange rate in the SUR system does not substantially alter the results.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2009/Volume29/EB-09-V29-I2-P50.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 29 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 1027-1034

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00032

Contact details of provider:

Related research

Keywords: panel causality tests; budget deficit; external imbalance; real exchange rates;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2006. "Twin deficits: squaring theory, evidence and common sense," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 597-638, October.
  2. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1988. "Budget Deficits and the Balance of Trade," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy: Volume 2, pages 1-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Afonso, António & Rault, Christophe, 2008. "Budgetary and external imbalances relationship: a panel data diagnostic," Working Paper Series 0961, European Central Bank.
  4. Konya, Laszlo, 2006. "Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 978-992, December.
  5. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
  6. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2000. "Current account dynamics and expected future budget deficits: some international evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 255-271, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2011. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Volatility and International Financial Integration: A Dynamic GMM Panel Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 3645, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Tosun, M. Umur & Iyidogan, Pelin Varol & Telatar, Erdinç, 2014. "The Twin Deficits in Selected Central and Eastern European Economies: Bounds Testing Approach with Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 141-160, June.
  3. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Rault, Christophe & Sova, Robert & Sova, Anamaria, 2012. "Environmental Regulation and Competitiveness: Evidence from Romania," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 130-139.
  4. Algieri, Bernardina, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the nexus between external balance and government budget balance: The case of the GIIPS countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 233-253.
  5. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Ben Youssef, Adel & M'henni, Hatem & Rault, Christophe, 2012. "Energy Consumption, Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in Middle East and North African Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 6412, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Veronika Å uliková & Marianna SiniÄáková & Denis Horváth, 2014. "Twin Deficits in Small Open Baltic Economies," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(2), pages 227-239, March.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00032. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.