Twin deficits and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: a comparison of the EU member states and candidate countries
AbstractThe paper’s main objective is to investigate the empirical link between the fiscal balance and the current account (i.e. the twin deficits phenomenon). The paper focuses on the EU member states and candidate countries which are according to their different (e.g. historical, political, economical and geographical) characteristics divided into two major groups, i.e. old EU member states (EU15) and new EU member states and candidate countries (EU12+3) in the 1995-2008 period. Additionally, the importance of the so-called Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in the considered countries is examined in order to draw some conclusions about the regions’ integration with international capital markets. The empirical results suggest that budget deficits in the EU member states and candidate countries have generally signaled relatively high level of substitutability between private and public savings, implying a relatively low correlation between fiscal and external imbalances. Thus, the empirical results in general reject the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis. Finally, the paper provides evidence of a relatively higher level of capital mobility, especially in the EU12+3 region in the second sub-period (2004-2008).
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 24149.
Date of creation: 29 Jul 2010
Date of revision:
twin deficits; Feldstein-Horioka puzzle; capital mobility; EU member states; candidate countries; panel data analysis;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- O52 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-08-06 (All new papers)
- NEP-EEC-2010-08-06 (European Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2010-08-06 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
- NEP-TRA-2010-08-06 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- George Vamvoukas, 1999. "The twin deficits phenomenon: evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1093-1100.
- Aristovnik, Aleksander & Berčič, Boštjan, 2007. "Fiscal Sustainability in Selected Transition Countries," MPRA Paper 122, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Martin Feldstein & Charles Horioka, 1979.
"Domestic Savings and International Capital Flows,"
NBER Working Papers
0310, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Afonso, António & Rault, Christophe, 2008.
"Budgetary and external imbalances relationship: a panel data diagnostic,"
Working Paper Series
0961, European Central Bank.
- António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008. "Budgetary and External Imbalances Relationship : a Panel Data Diagnostic," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/45, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
- António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2009. "Budgetary and External Imbalances Relationship: A Panel Data Diagnostic," CESifo Working Paper Series 2559, CESifo Group Munich.
- António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2008.
"What do we really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2226, CESifo Group Munich.
- António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
- António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2007. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Working Papers hal-00322091, HAL.
- Christophe Rault & Antonio Alfonso, 2007. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp893, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Afonso, António & Rault, Christophe, 2007. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Working Paper Series 0820, European Central Bank.
- António Afonso, 2006. "Sustainability of fiscal policy in the EU-15," CESifo DICE Report, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 4(1), pages 34-38, 04.
- Barro, Robert J, 1989.
"The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 37-54, Spring.
- M. Faizul Islam, 1998. "Brazil's twin deficits: An empirical examination," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(2), pages 121-128, June.
- Nickel, Christiane & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2008. "Fiscal policies, the current account and Ricardian equivalence," Working Paper Series 0935, European Central Bank.
- Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2005. "Determinants of current account developments in the central and east European EU member states - consequences for the enlargement of the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Jarko Fidrmuc, 2003. "The Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle and Twin Deficits in Selected Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 135-152, June.
- Kearney, Colm & Monadjemi, Mehdi, 1990. "Fiscal policy and current account performance: International evidence on the twin deficits," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 197-219.
- Aleksander Aristovnik, 2006. "How Excessive are External Imbalances in Selected Transition Countries?," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(3), pages 243-267.
- Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2007. "Is the Ricardian Equivalence Proposition an 'Aerie Fairy' Theory for Europe?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(296), pages 682-694, November.
- Marinheiro, Carlos Fonseca, 2008.
"Ricardian equivalence, twin deficits, and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Egypt,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1041-1056.
- Carlos Marinheiro, 2006. "Ricardian Equivalence, Twin Deficits, and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle in Egypt," GEMF Working Papers 2006-07, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
- Michael M. Hutchison & Nirvikar Singh, 1993. "Long-term international capital mobility: new evidence from equilibrium real interest rate linkages," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 93-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Daniel Levy, 2004.
"Is the Feldstein-Horioka Puzzle Really a Puzzle?,"
0402002, EconWPA, revised 12 May 2005.
- Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel & Müller, Gernot J., 2004. "Current accounts dynamics in OECD and EU acceding countries - an intertemporal approach," Working Paper Series 0311, European Central Bank.
- dumludag, devrim, 2007. "An analysis of the determinants of foreign direct investment in Turkey: the role of the institutional context," MPRA Paper 32060, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2008.
- Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1996. "Sustainability of Persistent Current Account Deficits," NBER Working Papers 5467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cosimo Magazzino, 2012. "Fiscal Policy, Consumption and Current Account in the European Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1330-1344.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.