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Fiscal developments in the euro area beyond the crisis: some lessons drawn from fiscal reaction functions

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  • Dufrénot G.
  • Paul L.

Abstract

In this paper, we examine whether the fact that governments incorporate an objective of sustainability in their budgetary decisions is an element likely to increase the likelihood of a decrease in their deficit and debt ratios beyond the crisis (over the years from 2010 to 2015). We estimate a fiscal reaction function for the Euro area countries and demonstrate that the discretionary policies seem to be pro cyclical in average, thereby influencing the budget balance in the opposite direction than the automatic stabilizers. Our simulations of these rules over the next five years lead us to conclude that two groups of countries could emerge as regards their respective budgetary situations. On the one hand, some “virtuous” countries whose structural deficits will diminish whatever the “exit crisis” scenario envisaged, whereas on the other side, others will not succeed in stabilizing their national debt ratio, because their discretionary fiscal policy is less pro cyclical.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banque de France in its series Working papers with number 292.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:292

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Keywords: euro zone ; exit crisis scenario ; fiscal policy;

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  1. Candelon, Bertrand & Muysken, Joan & Vermeulen, Robert, 2007. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe: An Update," Research Memorandum 050, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  2. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001. "A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Economics Working Paper Archive 469, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  3. Antonio Fat·s & Ilian Mihov, 2003. "On Constraining Fiscal Policy Discretion in EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(1), pages 112-131.
  4. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "Bias in Dynamic Panel Estimation with Fixed Effects, Incidental Trends and Cross Section Dependence," Yale School of Management Working Papers, Yale School of Management ysm428, Yale School of Management.
  6. António Afonso, 2006. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence," Working Papers Department of Economics 2006/18, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  7. Coenen, Günter & Mohr, Matthias & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Fiscal consolidation in the euro area: long-run benefits and short-run costs," Working Paper Series 0902, European Central Bank.
  8. Servaas Deroose & Martin Larch & Andrea Schaechter, 2008. "Constricted, lame and pro-cyclical? Fiscal policy in the euro area revisited," European Economy - Economic Papers, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission 353, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  9. De Bandt, Olivier & Mongelli, Francesco Paolo, 2000. "Convergence of fiscal policies in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0020, European Central Bank.
  10. von Hagen, Jürgen, 2003. "Fiscal discipline and growth in Euroland: Experiences with the stability and growth pact," ZEI Working Papers B 06-2003, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
  11. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2006. "Changing Patterns of Domestic and Cross-Border Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Europe and the US," Working Papers 2006-24, CEPII research center.
  12. Stéphanie Guichard & Mike Kennedy & Eckhard Wurzel & Christophe André, 2007. "What Promotes Fiscal Consolidation: OECD Country Experiences," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 553, OECD Publishing.
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