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Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach

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  • Vyacheslav Mikhed
  • Petr Zemcik

Abstract

We employ recently developed cross-sectionally robust panel data tests for unit roots and cointegration to find whether house prices reflect house-related earnings. We use U.S. data for Metropolitan Statistical Areas, with house price measured by the weighted-repeated-sales index, and cash flows either by market tenant rents or estimates of a fair market rent. In our full sample periods, an error-correction model is not appropriate, i.e. there is a bubble. We then combine overlapping ten-year periods, price-rent ratios, and the panel data tests to construct a bubble indicator. The indicator is high for the late 1980s, early 1990s and since the late 1990s for both panels. Finally, evidence based on panel data Granger causality tests suggests that house price changes are helpful in predicting changes in rents and vice versa.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague in its series CERGE-EI Working Papers with number wp338.

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Date of creation: Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp338

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Keywords: Cointegration; panel data; unit root; bubble; house prices; rents.;

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References

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  1. Pedroni, Peter, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic And Finite Sample Properties Of Pooled Time Series Tests With An Application To The Ppp Hypothesis," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 597-625, June.
  2. Pesaran, M.H., 2004. "‘General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0435, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Prices of Single Family Homes Since 1970: New Indexes for Four Cities," NBER Working Papers 2393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  5. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October.
  6. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  7. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions," Staff Reports 218, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2004. "Are home prices the next "bubble"?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 1-17.
  9. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  10. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
  11. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  12. Sean D. Campbell & Morris A. Davis & Joshua Gallin & Robert F. Martin, 2006. "A trend and variance decomposition of the rent-price ratio in housing markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  14. Clark, Todd E., 1995. "Rents and prices of housing across areas of the United States. A cross-section examination of the present value model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 237-247, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Matthew S. Yiu & Lu Jin, 2012. "Detecting Bubbles in the Hong Kong Residential Property Market: An Explosive-Pattern Approach," Working Papers 012012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  2. Marcelo M. de Oliveira & Alexandre C. L. Almeida, 2014. "Testing for rational speculative bubbles in the Brazilian residential real-estate market," Papers 1401.7615, arXiv.org.
  3. Roberto ESPOSTI, 2008. "Why Should Regional Agricultural Productivity Growth Converge? Evidence from Italian Regions," Working Papers 319, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  4. André K. Anundsen, 2012. "Econometric regime shifts and the US subprime bubble," National Bank of Poland Working Papers 126, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute.
  5. MeiChi Huang, 2013. "The Role of People’s Expectation in the Recent US Housing Boom and Bust," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 452-479, April.
  6. Anundsen, André Kallåk, 2013. "Economic Regime Shifts and the US Subprime Bubble," Memorandum 05/2013, Oslo University, Department of Economics.

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