Report NEP-FOR-2011-08-02This is the archive for NEP-FOR, a report on new working papers in the area of Forecasting. Rob J Hyndman issued this report. It is usually issued weekly.
The following items were announced in this report:
- Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Forecasting the price of oil," International Finance Discussion Papers 1022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- González, Andrés & Hubrich, Kirstin & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2011. "Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information," Working Paper Series 1363, European Central Bank.
- Ildeberta Abreu, 2011. "International organisations’ vs. private analysts’ forecasts: an evaluation," Working Papers w201120, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Paulo Araújo Santos & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez Amaral, 2011. "GFC-Robust Risk Management Under the Basel Accord Using Extreme Value Methodologies," Working Papers in Economics 11/28, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- João Sousa & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S," Working Papers w201119, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Roberto Casarin & Chia-Lin Chang & Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Michael McAleer & Teodosio Pérez Amaral, 2011. "Risk Management of Risk Under the Basel Accord: A Bayesian Approach to Forecasting Value-at-Risk of VIX Futures," Working Papers in Economics 11/26, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
- Ozgur E. Ergungor & Leonardo Madureira & Nandkumar Nayar & Ajai K. Singh, 2011. "Banking relationships and sell-side research," Working Paper 1114, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Carlo Favero & Marco Giacoletti, 2011. "Progress in Medicine, Limits to Life and Forecasting Mortality," Working Papers 406, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Athanasopoulos, George & Guillén, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2011. "Model selection, estimation and forecasting in VAR models with short-run and long-run restrictions," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 713, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Milan Rippel & Ivo Jánský, 2011. "Value at Risk forecasting with the ARMA-GARCH family of models in times of increased volatility," Working Papers IES 2011/27, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2011.
- Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011. "An Early Warning System to Predict the House Price Bubbles," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1142, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Chevallier, Julien & Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional aviation Jet-Fuel demands to the mid term (2025)," Open Access publications from UniversitÃ© Paris-Dauphine urn:hdl:123456789/6792, Université Paris-Dauphine.
- Avery, Christopher & Chevalier, Judith & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 2011. "The "CAPS" Prediction System and Stock Market Returns," Working Paper Series rwp11-028, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2011. "Over-optimism in Forecasts by Official Budget Agencies and Its Implications," NBER Working Papers 17239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.