Progress in Medicine, Limits to Life and Forecasting Mortality
AbstractIn this paper we propose a model to forecast future mortality that includes information on the limits to life and on progress in medicine. We apply the model to forecasting future mortality and survival rates for the males population in England andWales. Our proposal extends the benchmark stochastic mortality model along two dimensions. First, we try and deal explicitly with tail risk in the cross-sectional estimation. by including information about the "limit to life" in the sample used to construct factors for the cross-sectional dimension of mortality rates. Second, we propose to substitute the usual stochastic trend model adopted for the time series of risk factors with a predictive framework based on available evidence on medical progress and causes of death. The model projects very little variability for limits to life over the next ten years and predicts that in 2020 the probability that an individual age 65 will survive until 85 is 20% with an upper bound of 23% and a lower bound of 17%.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 406.
Date of creation: 2011
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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2011-08-02 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2011-08-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEM-2011-08-02 (Demographic Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2011-08-02 (Forecasting)
- NEP-HEA-2011-08-02 (Health Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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