Explaining young mortality
AbstractStochastic modeling of mortality rates focuses on fitting linear models to logarithmically adjusted mortality data from the middle or late ages. Whilst this modeling enables insurers to project mortality rates and hence price mortality products it does not provide good fit for younger aged mortality. Mortality rates below the early 20’s are important to model as they give an insight into estimates of the cohort effect for more recent years of birth. It is also important given the cumulative nature of life expectancy to be able to forecast mortality improvements at all ages. When we attempt to fit existing models to a wider age range, 5–89, rather than 20–89 or 50–89, their weaknesses are revealed as the results are not satisfactory. The linear innovations in existing models are not flexible enough to capture the non-linear profile of mortality rates that we see at the lower ages. In this paper, we modify an existing 4 factor model of mortality to enable better fitting to a wider age range, and using data from seven developed countries our empirical results show that the proposed model has a better fit to the actual data, is robust, and has good forecasting ability.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Insurance: Mathematics and Economics.
Volume (Year): 50 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554
Mortality; Stochastic models; Forecasting; Non-linearity;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
- G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
- J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
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