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The impact of house prices on consumer credit: evidence from an internet bank

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  • Rodney Ramcharan
  • Christopher Crowe

Abstract

This paper shows that house price fluctuations can have a significant impact on credit markets well beyond the mortgage segment. Using new data from Prosper.com, a peer to peer lending site that matches borrowers and lenders to provide unsecured consumer loans, we find evidence that home owners in states with declining house prices face higher interest rates and greater rationing of credit, while also becoming delinquent faster. Investigating the mechanism, we find separate supply and demand effects, and especially large effects for those subprime borrowers whose balance sheets are likely to be most exposed to asset price declines. This evidence suggests that asset price fluctuations can play an important part in determining credit conditions and are thus a potentially significant mechanism for propagating macroeconomic shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2012-60.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2012-60

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  1. Christopher D. Carroll & Misuzu Otsuka & Jirka Slacalek, 2006. "How Large Is the Housing Wealth Effect? A New Approach," NBER Working Papers 12746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae & Makoto Nakajima & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2007. "A Quantitative Theory of Unsecured Consumer Credit with Risk of Default," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1525-1589, November.
  3. Hau, Harald & Rey, Hélène, 2003. "Exchange Rates, Equity Prices and Capital Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 3735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Karl E. Case & John M. Quigley & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1335, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Jose M. Liberti & Atif R. Mian, 2009. "Estimating the Effect of Hierarchies on Information Use," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4057-4090, October.
  6. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Chen, Nan-Kuang, 2001. "Bank net worth, asset prices and economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 415-436, October.
  8. Charles W. Calomiris & Stanley D. Longhofer & William Miles, 2008. "The Foreclosure-House Price Nexus: Lessons from the 2007-2008 Housing Turmoil," NBER Working Papers 14294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Reint Gropp & John Karl Scholz & Michelle White, 1996. "Personal Bankruptcy and Credit Supply and Demand," NBER Working Papers 5653, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing IS the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 13428, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Mario Cleves & William W. Gould & Roberto G. Gutierrez & Yulia Marchenko, 2010. "An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 3, number saus3, March.
  12. John Muellbauer & Anthony Murphy, 2008. "Housing markets and the economy: the assessment," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(1), pages 1-33, spring.
  13. William Adams & Liran Einav & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Liquidity Constraints and Imperfect Information in Subprime Lending," NBER Working Papers 13067, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Victor Rios-Rull & Dean Corbae: & Satyajit Chatterjee, 2011. "A Theory of Credit Scoring and the Competitive Pricing of Default Risk," 2011 Meeting Papers 1115, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362, February.
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