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Emerging economies in the 2000s:Real decoupling and financial recoupling

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  • Eduardo Levy Yeyati
  • Tomas Williams

Abstract

The paper documents an intriguing development in the emerging world in the 2000s: a decoupling from the business cycle of advanced countries, combined with the strengthening of the co-movements in the main emerging market assets that predates the synchronized sell-off during the crisis. In addition, the paper tests the hypothesis that financial globalization, to the extent that it creates a common, global investor base for emerging markets, could lead to a tighter asset correlation despite the weaker economic ties. While an examination of the impact of alternative financial globalization proxies does not yield conclusive results, a closer look at global emerging market equity and bond funds shows that the latter indeed foster financial recoupling during downturns, reflecting the fact that they trade near their respective benchmarks and respond to withdrawals by liquidating holdings across the board.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in its series Business School Working Papers with number 2011-06_correccion.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:udt:wpbsdt:2011-06_correccion

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References

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  1. Rose, Andrew K & Spiegel, Mark, 2009. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure," CEPR Discussion Papers 7466, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  6. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Rogoff, Kenneth & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2009. "Financial Globalization and Economic Policies," IZA Discussion Papers 4037, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Aart Kraay & Norman Loayza & Luis Serven & Jaume Ventura, 2000. "Country Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 7795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 2000. "Capital Flows and the Behavior of Emerging Market Equity Returns," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 159-194 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Wälti, Sébastien, 2009. "The myth of decoupling," MPRA Paper 20870, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. M. Ayhan Kose & Eswar S. Prasad & Ashley D. Taylor, 2009. "Thresholds in the Process of International Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 14916, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Forbes, Kristin J., 2004. "The Asian flu and Russian virus: the international transmission of crises in firm-level data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-92, May.
  12. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "Globalization and Capital Markets," NBER Working Papers 8846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Yeyati, Eduardo Levy & Williams, Tomas, 2011. "Financial globalization in emerging economies : much ado about nothing ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5624, The World Bank.
  14. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2009. "International financial remoteness and macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 250-257, July.
  15. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & María Soledad Martínez Pería & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2010. "Depositor Behavior under Macroeconomic Risk: Evidence from Bank Runs in Emerging Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 585-614, 06.
  16. Michael P. Dooley & Michael M. Hutchison, 2009. "Transmission of the U.S. Subprime Crisis to Emerging Markets: Evidence on the Decoupling-Recoupling Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 15120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  18. Eduardo Yeyati & Sergio Schmukler & Neeltje Van Horen, 2009. "Crises, Capital Controls, and Financial Integration," Working Papers id:2099, eSocialSciences.
  19. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2009. "Why Did Financial Globalization Disappoint?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 112-138, April.
  20. Tatiana Didier & Inessa Love & María Soledad Martínez Pería, 2012. "What explains comovement in stock market returns during the 2007–2008 crisis?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 182-202, 04.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
  2. Floros, Christos & Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2013. "Financial crises, the decoupling–recoupling hypothesis, and the risk premium on the Greek stock index futures market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 166-173.
  3. Aizenman, Joshua & Dekle, Robert & Lothian, James R., 2012. "Overview of the special issue on “Policy Implications of and Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis”," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 1971-1975.
  4. Lillie Lam & James Yetman, 2013. "Asia’s decoupling: fact, forecast or fiction?," BIS Working Papers 438, Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Trancoso, Tiago, 2014. "Emerging markets in the global economic network: Real(ly) decoupling?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 395(C), pages 499-510.

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