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Credit market shocks: evidence from corporate spreads and defaults

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  • Roland Meeks

Abstract

Several recent papers have found that exogenous shocks to spreads paid in corporate credit markets are a substantial source of macroeconomic fluctuations. An alternative explanation of the data is that spreads respond endogenously to expectations of future default. We use a simple model of bond spreads to derive sign restrictions on the impulse-response functions of a VAR that identify credit shocks in the bond market, and compare them to results from a benchmark recursive VAR. We find that credit market shocks cause a persistent decline in output, prices and policy rates. Historical decompositions clearly show the negative effect of adverse credit market shocks on output in the recent recession. The identified credit shocks are unrelated to exogenous innovations to monetary policy and measures of bond market liquidity, but are related to measures of risk compensation. In contrast to results found using the benchmark restrictions, our identified credit shocks account for relatively little of the variance of output. Our results are consistent with a role for shocks in financial crises, but also with a lesser but non-zero role in normal business fluctuations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Working Papers with number 0906.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:0906

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Keywords: Bond market ; Vector autoregression ; Business cycles ; Interest rates ; Financial markets;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
  2. David Jacobs & Vanessa Rayner, 2012. "The Role of Credit Supply in the Australian Economy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2012-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  3. Bálint Tamási & Balázs Világi, 2011. "Identification of credit supply shocks in a Bayesian SVAR model of the Hungarian economy," MNB Working Papers 2011/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary).
  4. Lahura, Erick, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of the Credit-Output Relationship: Evidence from Peru," Working Papers 2011-018, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
  5. Fei Han & Selim Elekdag, 2012. "What Drives Credit Growth in Emerging Asia?," IMF Working Papers 12/43, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Helbling, Thomas & Huidrom, Raju & Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher, 2011. "Do credit shocks matter? A global perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 340-353, April.

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