Financial shocks and the US business cycle

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Financial shocks and the US business cycle

Author Info

Charles Nolan ()
Christoph Thoenissen ()

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Abstract

Employing the financial accelerator (FA) model of Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999) enhanced to include a shock to the FA mechanism, we construct and study shocks to the efficiency of the financial sector in post-war US business cycles. We find that financial shocks are very tightly linked with the onset of recessions, more so than TFP or monetary shocks. The financial shock invariably remains contractionary for sometime after recessions have ended. The shock accounts for a large part of the variance of GDP and is strongly negatively correlated with the external finance premium. Second-moments comparisons across variants of the model with and without a (stochastic) FA mechanism suggests the stochastic FA model helps us understand the data.

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Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 0810.

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Date of creation: Dec 2008
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:0810

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Article
- Nolan, Charles & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2009. "Financial shocks and the US business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 596-604, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2009-01-03 (All new papers)
NEP-BEC-2009-01-03 (Business Economics)
NEP-CBA-2009-01-03 (Central Banking)
NEP-MAC-2009-01-03 (Macroeconomics)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2008. "Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1281-1293, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2006. " Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," CDMA Conference Paper Series 0604, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
- Szilárd Benk & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2007. "Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," MNB Working Papers 2007/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (The Central Bank of Hungary). [Downloadable!]
- Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2007. "Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section. [Downloadable!]
Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1999. "The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1341-1393 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
De Graeve, Ferre, 2008. "The external finance premium and the macroeconomy: US post-WWII evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3415-3440, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- F. Degraeve, 2007. "The External Finance Premium and the Macroeconomy: US post-WWII Evidence," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 07/482, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. [Downloadable!]
- Ferre De Graeve, 2008. "The external finance premium and the macroeconomy: US post-WWII evidence," Working Papers 0809, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
- De Graeve Ferre, 2007. "The External Finance Premium and the Macroeconomy: US post-WWII Evidence," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 83, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
- Ferre De Graeve, 2006. "The External Finance Premium and the Macroeconomy: US post-WWII Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 84, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
Arnab Bhattacharjee & Christoph Thoenissen, 2007. "Money And Monetary Policy In Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 75(s1), pages 88-122, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Blankenau, William & Ayhan Kose, M. & Yi, Kei-Mu, 2001. "Can world real interest rates explain business cycles in a small open economy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 867-889, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- William Blankenau & M. Ayhan Kose & Kei-Mu Yi, 1999. "Can world real interest rates explain business cycles in a small open economy?," Staff Reports 94, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Andrew Levin & Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1151, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
- Ryo Kato & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2002. "Matlab code for a sticky wage/price model," QM&RBC Codes 114, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles. [Downloadable!]
Ingram, Beth Fisher & Kocherlakota, Narayana R. & Savin, N. E., 1994. "Explaining business cycles: A multiple-shock approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 415-428, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Ingram, B.F. & Kocherlakota, N.R. & Savin, N.E., 1992. "Explaining Business Cycles : A Multiple Shock Approach," Working Papers 92-09, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2007. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 295-330, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2003. "External constraints on monetary policy and the financial accelerator," BIS Working Papers 139, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
- Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio Natalucci, 2003. "External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator," NBER Working Papers 10128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio Natalucci, 2001. "External constraints on monetary policy and the financial accelerator," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Faia, Ester & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Credit Frictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 4880, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Ester Faia & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Optimal Monetary Policy Rules, Asset Prices and Credit Frictions," Working Papers 279, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University. [Downloadable!]

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Parantap Basu & Christoph Thoenissen, 2009. " International business cycles and the relative price of investment goods," CDMA Working Paper Series 0905, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]

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This page was last updated on 2009-10-28.

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