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Financial shocks and the US business cycle

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  • Nolan, Charles
  • Thoenissen, Christoph

Abstract

Employing the financial accelerator (FA) model of Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist (1999) enhanced to include a shock to the FA mechanism, we construct and study shocks to the efficiency of the financial sector in post-war US business cycles. We find that financial shocks are very tightly linked with the onset of recessions, more so than TFP or monetary shocks. The financial shock invariably remains contractionary for sometime after recessions have ended. The shock accounts for a large part of the variance of GDP and is strongly negatively correlated with the external finance premium. Second-moments comparisons across variants of the model with and without a (stochastic) FA mechanism suggests the stochastic FA model helps us understand the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Nolan, Charles & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2008. "Financial shocks and the US business cycle," SIRE Discussion Papers 2008-58, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    • Handle: RePEc:edn:sirdps:71
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10943/71
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial accelerator; financial shocks; macroeconomic volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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