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Dynamic Effects of Credit Shocks in a Data-Rich Environment

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  • Jean Boivin
  • Marc P. Giannoni
  • Dalibor Stevanovic

    ()

Abstract

We examine the dynamic effects of credit shocks using a large data set of U.S. economic and financial indicators in a structural factor model. The identified credit shocks, interpreted as unexpected deteriorations of credit market conditions, immediately increase credit spreads, decrease rates on Treasury securities, and cause large and persistent downturns in the activity of many economic sectors. Such shocks are found to have important effects on real activity measures, aggregate prices, leading indicators, and credit spreads. Our identification procedure does not require any timing restrictions between the financial and macroeconomic factors, and yields interpretable estimated factors.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CIRANO in its series CIRANO Working Papers with number 2013s-11.

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Date of creation: 01 May 2013
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Handle: RePEc:cir:cirwor:2013s-11

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Keywords: Credit shock; structural factor analysis;

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References

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  1. Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections," Working Papers ECARES 2008_036, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Lawrence Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2013. "Risk Shocks," NBER Working Papers 18682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Borus Jungbacker & Siem Jan Koopman, 2008. "Likelihood-based Analysis for Dynamic Factor Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-007/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 20 Mar 2014.
  5. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary policy in real time," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6401, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2006. "DSGE Models in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers 12772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Doz, Catherine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "A Quasi Maximum Likelihood Approach for Large Approximate Dynamic Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5724, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2004. "The Great Depression and the Friedman-Schwartz Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 10255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Gertler, Mark & Lown, Cara S, 1999. "The Information in the High-Yield Bond Spread for the Business Cycle: Evidence and Some Implications," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 132-50, Autumn.
  10. Simon Gilchrist & Vladimir Yankov & Egon Zakrajsek, 2009. "Credit Market Shocks and Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Corporate Bond and Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 14863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
  12. repec:dgr:uvatin:2008007 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-87, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Nathan Bedock & Dalibor Stevanovic, 2012. "An Empirical Study of Credit Shock Transmission in a Small Open Economy," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-16, CIRANO.
  2. Fonseca, Marcelo Gonçalves da Silva & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2014. "Credit shocks and monetary policy in Brazil: A structural FAVAR approach," Textos para discussão 358, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  3. Mésonnier, J-S. & Stevanovic, D., 2012. "Bank leverage shocks and the macroeconomy: a new look in a data-rich environment," Working papers 394, Banque de France.
  4. Covas, Francisco B. & Rump, Ben & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2014. "Stress-testing US bank holding companies: A dynamic panel quantile regression approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 691-713.
  5. Pinter, Gabor & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Yates, Tony, 2013. "Risk news shocks and the business cycle," Bank of England working papers 483, Bank of England.

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