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Macroeconomic Shocks and the Business Cycle: Evidence from a Structural Factor Model fiscal

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  • Mario Forni
  • Luca Gambetti

Abstract

We obtain the following results. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of fluctuations; supply prevails for GDP, while demand prevails for employment and information. (ii) Policy matters: Both monetary and fiscal policy shocks have sizeable effects on output and prices, with little evidence of crowding out; both monetary and fiscal authorities implement important systematic countercyclical policies reacting to demand shocks. (iii) Negative demand shocks have a large long-run positive effect on productivity, consistently with the Schumpeterian cleansing view of recessions

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Barcelona Graduate School of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 440.

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Date of creation: Mar 2010
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Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:440

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Related research

Keywords: Structural factor model; Sign restrictions; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Demand; Supply;

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References

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  2. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin, 2001. "Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers 8379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Davis, Steven J & Haltiwanger, John C, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 819-63, August.
  4. Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections," Working Papers ECARES 2008_036, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  5. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1993. "Productivity growth and the structure of the business cycle," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 861-883, May.
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  10. Mario Forni & Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese., 2008. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 020, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics.
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  12. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model. One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," LEM Papers Series 2003/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
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Cited by:
  1. Matteo Barigozzi & Antonio Conti & Matteo Luciani, 2012. "Do Euro area countries respond asymmetrically to the common monetary policy?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43344, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Baumeister, Christiane & Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2013. "Changes in the effects of monetary policy on disaggregate price dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 543-560.

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