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What lies beneath? A time-varying FAVAR model for the UK transmission mechanism

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  • Mumtaz, Haroon
  • Zabczyk, Pawel
  • Ellis, Colin

Abstract

This paper uses a time-varying Factor Augmented VAR to investigate the evolving transmission of monetary policy and demand shocks in the UK. Simultaneous estimation of time-varying impulse responses of a large set of macroeconomic variables and disaggregated prices suggest that the response of inflation, money supply and asset prices to monetary policy and demand shocks has changed over the sample period. In particular, during the post-1992 inflation targeting period, monetary policy shocks started having a bigger impact on prices, a smaller impact on activity and began contributing more to overall volatility. In contrast, demand shocks had the largest impact on these variables before the 1990s. We also document changes in the response of disaggregated prices, with the median reaction to contractionary policy shocks becoming more negative and the distribution more dispersed post-1992. JEL Classification: C38, E44, E52

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1320.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111320

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Related research

Keywords: Factor Augmented VAR; monetary policy; sign restrictions; timevarying coefficients; transmission mechanism;

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  1. Mumtaz, Haroon & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from a Time-varying Dynamic Factor Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 6767, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2010. "Macroeconomic Shocks and the Business Cycle: Evidence from a Structural Factor Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 7692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Benati, Luca & Surico, Paolo, 2008. "VAR analysis and the Great Moderation," Working Paper Series 0866, European Central Bank.
  4. Boivin, Jean & Giannoni, Marc P. & Mihov, Ilian, 2006. "Sticky prices and monetary policy: Evidence from disaggregated US data," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/14, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  5. Efrem Castelnuovo & Paolo Surico, 2006. "The price puzzle: fact or artefact?," Bank of England working papers 288, Bank of England.
  6. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2010. "Persistent Liquidity Effect and Long Run Money Demand," EIEF Working Papers Series 1017, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Oct 2010.
  7. Timothy Cogley & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S," NBER Working Papers 13749, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Leduc, Sylvain & Sill, Keith & Stark, Tom, 2007. "Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: Evidence from the Livingston Survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 433-459, March.
  9. Cogley, Timothy & Morozov, Sergei & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "Bayesian fan charts for U.K. inflation: Forecasting and sources of uncertainty in an evolving monetary system," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1893-1925, November.
  10. Luca Benati, 2008. "The "Great Moderation" in the United Kingdom," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(1), pages 121-147, 02.
  11. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2006. "A Bayesian Look at the New Open Economy Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 313-382 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Luca Benati, 2003. "Evolving Post-World War II U.K. Economic Performance," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 171, Society for Computational Economics.
  13. Francesco Bianchi & Haroon Mumtaz, 2010. "Dynamics of the Term Structure of UK Interest Rates," Working Papers 10-38, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  14. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  15. Baumeister, Christiane & Liu, Philip & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2010. "Changes in the transmission of monetary policy: evidence from a time-varying factor-augmented VAR," Bank of England working papers 401, Bank of England.
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Cited by:
  1. Kemal Bagzibagli, 2012. "Monetary Transmission Mechanism and Time Variation in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 12-12, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.

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