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Does inflation has an Impact on Stock Returns and Volatility? Evidence from Nigeria and Ghana

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  • Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu

Abstract

This study seeks to apply the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to assess the impact of inflation on stock market returns and volatility using monthly time series data from two West African countries, that is, Nigeria and Ghana. In addition, the impact of asymmetric shocks was investigated using the quadratic GARCH model developed by Sentana (1995), in both countries. Results for Nigeria show weak support for the hypothesis which states that bad news exert more adverse effect on stock market volatility than good news of the same magnitude; while a strong opposite case holds for Ghana. Furthermore, inflation rate and its three month average were found to have significant effect on stock market volatility in the two countries. Measures employed towards restraining inflation in the two countries, therefore, would certainly reduce stock market volatility, improve stock market returns and boost investor confidence.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 30091.

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Date of creation: 10 Jan 2010
Date of revision: 19 Mar 2011
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30091

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Keywords: Stock Returns; Volatility; inflation;

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  1. Kaul, Gautam, 1987. "Stock returns and inflation : The role of the monetary sector," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-276, June.
  2. Robert Engle, 2004. "Risk and Volatility: Econometric Models and Financial Practice," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 405-420, June.
  3. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
  4. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change Over Time?," NBER Working Papers 2798, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Sentana, Enrique, 1995. "Quadratic ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 639-61, October.
  6. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
  7. Robert F. Engle & Jose Gonzalo Rangel, 2005. "The Spline GARCH Model for Unconditional Volatility and its Global Macroeconomic Causes," Working Papers 2005/13, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  8. Nicole Davis & Ali Kutan, 2003. "Inflation and output as predictors of stock returns and volatility: international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 693-700.
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