IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/qualqt/v57y2023i2d10.1007_s11135-022-01435-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

World pandemic uncertainty and German stock market: evidence from Markov regime-switching and Fourier based approaches

Author

Listed:
  • Seyed Alireza Athari

    (Cyprus International University)

  • Dervis Kirikkaleli

    (European University of Lefke)

  • Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo

    (Cyprus International University)

Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of the world pandemic uncertainty index on the German stock market index (DAX index) for the 1996Q1 to 2020Q3 period while controlling real effective exchange rate, industrial production index, and consumer price index. The present study performs the Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fulle Unit Root, Fourier Engle-Granger Cointegration, Bayer-Hanck Cointegration, and Markov switching regression tests. The outcomes disclose that there is a long-run cointegration association between the stock market index and world pandemic uncertainty index, real effective exchange rate, industrial production index, and consumer price index in Germany, indicating that the combination of these factors significantly affects the German stock market index in the long-run. Moreover, in both high and low volatile regimes, the world pandemic uncertainty index and real effective exchange rate negatively affect the German stock market index while industrial production and consumer price indices impact positively.

Suggested Citation

  • Seyed Alireza Athari & Dervis Kirikkaleli & Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, 2023. "World pandemic uncertainty and German stock market: evidence from Markov regime-switching and Fourier based approaches," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1923-1936, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:57:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s11135-022-01435-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-022-01435-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11135-022-01435-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11135-022-01435-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Topcu, Mert & Gulal, Omer Serkan, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on emerging stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    2. Xu, Libo, 2021. "Stock Return and the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Canada and the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    3. Chkili, Walid & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Exchange rate movements and stock market returns in a regime-switching environment: Evidence for BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 46-56.
    4. Ekhlas Al-hajj & Usama Al-mulali & Sakiru Adebola Solarin, 2017. "The Influence of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Returns: Fresh Evidence from Malaysia," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 235-244.
    5. Al-Awadhi, Abdullah M. & Alsaifi, Khaled & Al-Awadhi, Ahmad & Alhammadi, Salah, 2020. "Death and contagious infectious diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 virus on stock market returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    6. Pinglin He & Yulong Sun & Ying Zhang & Tao Li, 2020. "COVID–19’s Impact on Stock Prices Across Different Sectors—An Event Study Based on the Chinese Stock Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2198-2212, August.
    7. Zhang, Dayong & Hu, Min & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    8. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(2), pages 323-339, May.
    9. Baur, Dirk & Jung, Robert C., 2006. "Return and volatility linkages between the US and the German stock market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 598-613, June.
    10. Pramod Kumar Naik & Puja Padhi, 2015. "On the linkage between stock market development and economic growth in emerging market economies," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(4), pages 363-381, November.
    11. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Devpura, Neluka & Wang, Hua, 2020. "Japanese currency and stock market—What happened during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 191-198.
    12. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Lee, Chang-Min, 2015. "International economic policy uncertainty and stock prices: Wavelet approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 118-122.
    13. Min Liu & Wei-Chong Choo & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2020. "The Response of the Stock Market to the Announcement of Global Pandemic," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(15), pages 3562-3577, December.
    14. Chau, Frankie & Deesomsak, Rataporn & Wang, Jun, 2014. "Political uncertainty and stock market volatility in the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-19.
    15. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    16. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    17. Uddin, Moshfique & Chowdhury, Anup & Anderson, Keith & Chaudhuri, Kausik, 2021. "The effect of COVID – 19 pandemic on global stock market volatility: Can economic strength help to manage the uncertainty?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 31-44.
    18. Kirikkaleli, Dervis, 2020. "The effect of domestic and foreign risks on an emerging stock market: A time series analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    19. Amir Amel†Zadeh, 2011. "The Return of the Size Anomaly: Evidence from the German Stock Market," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(1), pages 145-182, January.
    20. Lars Jonung & Werner Roeger, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 251, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    21. Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
    22. Joseph Ato Forson & Jakkaphong Janrattanagul, 2014. "Selected Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Movements: Empirical evidence from Thailand," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(2), June.
    23. Peter Boswijk, H., 1994. "Testing for an unstable root in conditional and structural error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 37-60, July.
    24. Ichev, Riste & Marinč, Matej, 2018. "Stock prices and geographic proximity of information: Evidence from the Ebola outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 153-166.
    25. Dao Le Trang Anh & Christopher Gan, 2020. "The impact of the COVID-19 lockdown on stock market performance: evidence from Vietnam," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(4), pages 836-851, August.
    26. Mazur, Mieszko & Dang, Man & Vega, Miguel, 2021. "COVID-19 and the march 2020 stock market crash. Evidence from S&P1500," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    27. Aggarwal, Shobhit & Nawn, Samarpan & Dugar, Amish, 2021. "What caused global stock market meltdown during the COVID pandemic–Lockdown stringency or investor panic?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    28. Lee, Bong Soo, 2010. "Stock returns and inflation revisited: An evaluation of the inflation illusion hypothesis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1257-1273, June.
    29. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    30. Dervis Kirikkaleli & Seyed Alireza Athari & Hasan Murat Ertugrul, 2021. "The real estate industry in Turkey: a time series analysis," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(5-6), pages 427-439, April.
    31. Dimpfl Thomas & Kleiman Vladislav, 2019. "Investor Pessimism and the German Stock Market: Exploring Google Search Queries," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 1-28, February.
    32. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2015. "The dynamics of economic growth, oil prices, stock market depth, and other macroeconomic variables: Evidence from the G-20 countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 84-95.
    33. Izzeldin, Marwan & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur & Pappas, Vasileios & Sivaprasad, Sheeja, 2021. "The impact of Covid-19 on G7 stock markets volatility: Evidence from a ST-HAR model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    34. Sui, Lu & Sun, Lijuan, 2016. "Spillover effects between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from BRICS around the recent global financial crisis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 459-471.
    35. Chun-Da Chen & Chin-Chun Chen & Wan-Wei Tang & Bor-Yi Huang, 2009. "The positive and negative impacts of the sars outbreak:a case of the Taiwan industries," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 43(1), pages 281-293, September.
    36. Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les & Xu, Danyang, 2021. "Pandemic-related financial market volatility spillovers: Evidence from the Chinese COVID-19 epicentre," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 55-81.
    37. Acaravci, Ali & Ozturk, Ilhan & Kandir, Serkan Yilmaz, 2012. "Natural gas prices and stock prices: Evidence from EU-15 countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1646-1654.
    38. Pramod Kumar Naik & Puja Padhi, 2015. "On the linkage between stock market development and economic growth in emerging market economies," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(4), pages 363-381, November.
    39. Srinivas Nippani & Kenneth Washer, 2004. "SARS: a non-event for affected countries' stock markets?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(15), pages 1105-1110.
    40. Zhang, Wenting & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2021. "Crude oil market and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from the US, Japan, and Germany," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    41. Zhao, Hua, 2010. "Dynamic relationship between exchange rate and stock price: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 103-112, June.
    42. Büttner, David & Hayo, Bernd, 2011. "Determinants of European stock market integration," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 574-585.
    43. Filis, George, 2010. "Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 877-886, July.
    44. Smith, Richard D. & Keogh-Brown, Marcus R. & Barnett, Tony, 2011. "Estimating the economic impact of pandemic influenza: An application of the computable general equilibrium model to the UK," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 235-244, July.
    45. Hao Xiong & Zuofeng Wu & Fei Hou & Jun Zhang, 2020. "Which Firm-specific Characteristics Affect the Market Reaction of Chinese Listed Companies to the COVID-19 Pandemic?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2231-2242, August.
    46. Prof. Joseph McCarthy & Pramod Kumar Naik & Puja Padhi, 2015. "On the linkage between stock market development and economic growth in emerging market economies," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(4), pages 363-381, November.
    47. Shehu Usman Rano Aliyu, 2012. "Does inflation have an impact on stock returns and volatility? Evidence from Nigeria and Ghana," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(6), pages 427-435, March.
    48. Christian Bayer & Christoph Hanck, 2013. "Combining non-cointegration tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 83-95, January.
    49. Chen, Jian & Jiang, Fuwei & Li, Hongyi & Xu, Weidong, 2016. "Chinese stock market volatility and the role of U.S. economic variables," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 70-83.
    50. Jianping Mei & Limin Guo, 2004. "Political Uncertainty, Financial Crisis and Market Volatility," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(4), pages 639-657, December.
    51. Sakhr Miss & Michel Charifzadeh & Tim A. Herberger, 2020. "Revisiting the monday effect: a replication study for the German stock market," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 257-273, May.
    52. Cepoi, Cosmin-Octavian, 2020. "Asymmetric dependence between stock market returns and news during COVID-19 financial turmoil," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    53. Erdem, Orhan, 2020. "Freedom and stock market performance during Covid-19 outbreak," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    54. Dinh Hoang Bach Phan & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2020. "Country Responses and the Reaction of the Stock Market to COVID-19—a Preliminary Exposition," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2138-2150, August.
    55. Del Giudice, Alfonso & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2017. "The impact of the Arab Spring and the Ebola outbreak on African equity mutual fund investor decisions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 600-612.
    56. Trabelsi Mnif, Afef, 2017. "Political uncertainty and behavior of Tunisian stock market cycles: Structural unobserved components time series models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 206-214.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Renata Tavanielli & Márcio Laurini, 2023. "Yield Curve Models with Regime Changes: An Analysis for the Brazilian Interest Rate Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-28, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Padhan, Rakesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "The economics of COVID-19 pandemic: A survey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 220-237.
    2. Jialei Jiang & Eun-Mi Park & Seong-Taek Park, 2021. "The Impact of the COVID-19 on Economic Sustainability—A Case Study of Fluctuation in Stock Prices for China and South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.
    3. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Lucey, Brian, 2021. "Gold and US sectoral stocks during COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    4. Kirikkaleli, Dervis, 2020. "The effect of domestic and foreign risks on an emerging stock market: A time series analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Bing, Tao & Ma, Hongkun, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic effect on trading and returns: Evidence from the Chinese stock market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 384-396.
    6. Huynh, Nhan & Dao, Anh & Nguyen, Dat, 2021. "Openness, economic uncertainty, government responses, and international financial market performance during the coronavirus pandemic," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    7. Sabeeh Ullah, 2023. "Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Financial Markets: a Global Perspective," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 14(2), pages 982-1003, June.
    8. Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Shabeer Khan & Ghulam Abbas & Mohammed Alhashim, 2023. "Novel COVID-19 Outbreak and Global Uncertainty in the Top-10 Affected Countries: Evidence from Wavelet Coherence Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    9. Shaista Wasiuzzaman, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on the Saudi stock market: analysis of return, volatility and trading volume," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 350-363, July.
    10. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Karikari, Nana Kwasi & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2022. "The outbreak of COVID-19 and stock market liquidity: Evidence from emerging and developed equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Niculaescu, Corina E. & Sangiorgi, Ivan & Bell, Adrian R., 2023. "Does personal experience with COVID-19 impact investment decisions? Evidence from a survey of US retail investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    12. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Devpura, Neluka & Wang, Hua, 2020. "Japanese currency and stock market—What happened during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 191-198.
    13. Wang, Zhixuan & Dong, Yanli & Liu, Ailan, 2022. "How does China's stock market react to supply chain disruptions from COVID-19?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    14. Aharon, David Y. & Siev, Smadar, 2021. "COVID-19, government interventions and emerging capital markets performance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    15. Ramez Abubakr Badeeb & Jeremy Clark & Abey P. Philip, 2021. "The Nonlinear Effects of Oil Rent Dependence on Malaysian Manufacturing: Implications from Structural Change using a Markov-Regime Switching Model," Working Papers in Economics 21/11, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    16. Naidu, Dharmendra & Ranjeeni, Kumari, 2021. "Effect of coronavirus fear on the performance of Australian stock returns: Evidence from an event study," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    17. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "The impact and role of COVID-19 uncertainty: A global industry analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Sui, Bo & Chang, Chun-Ping & Jang, Chyi-Lu & Gong, Qiang, 2021. "Analyzing causality between epidemics and oil prices: Role of the stock market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 148-158.
    19. Michał Buszko & Witold Orzeszko & Marcin Stawarz, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and stability of stock market—A sectoral approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-26, May.
    20. Faik Bilgili & Emrah Koçak & Sevda Kuşkaya, 2023. "Dynamics and Co-movements Between the COVID-19 Outbreak and the Stock Market in Latin American Countries: An Evaluation Based on the Wavelet-Partial Wavelet Coherence Model," Evaluation Review, , vol. 47(4), pages 630-652, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:57:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s11135-022-01435-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.