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The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment

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Author Info

  • Lars Jonung
  • Werner Roeger

Abstract

This report estimates possible macroeconomic effects of a pandemic taking place in the EU in 2006, using a quarterly macroeconomic model. The macroeconomic costs of a pandemic, that is the cost in terms of production lost due to illness and death measured as reductions in GDP growth and/or declines in the level of GDP, are quantified in various pandemic scenarios. We focus on two sectors of the European economy that are expected to be particularly severely hit, tourism and trade. The results are compared with those obtained in similar studies. Our basic conclusion is that, although a pandemic would take a huge toll in human suffering, it would most likely not be a severe threat to the European macroeconomy.

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File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication708_en.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 251.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0251

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Related research

Keywords: Pandemics; avian flu; Spanish influenza; macroeconomic model; Jonung; Roeger;

References

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  1. Clive Bell & Maureen Lewis, 2004. "The Economic Implications of Epidemics Old and New," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 5(4), pages 137-174, October.
  2. Bell, Clive & Gersbach, Hans, 2004. "Growth and Epidemic Diseases," CEPR Discussion Papers 4800, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Roeger, Werner & in 't Veld, Jan, 2004. "Some selected simulation experiments with the European commission's QUEST model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 785-832, September.
  4. Brainerd, Elizabeth & Siegler, Mark V, 2003. "The Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 3791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Alwyn Young, 2004. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations," NBER Working Papers 10991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Warwick McKibbin & Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. "Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza," CAMA Working Papers 2006-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  7. Forslid, Rikard, 2005. "Can We Trust Private Firms as Suppliers of Vaccine for the Avian Influenza?," Research Papers in Economics 2005:2, Stockholm University, Department of Economics, revised 06 Feb 2006.
  8. Douglas Almond & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2005. "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Subsequent Health Outcomes: An Analysis of SIPP Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 258-262, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Simon Wren-Lewis & Marcus Keogh-Brown, 2009. "The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic," Economics Series Working Papers 431, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2011. "The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-224, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  3. Nicolas R. Blancher & François Haas & John Kiff & Oksana Khadarina & Paul S. Mills & Parmeshwar Ramlogan & William Lee & Yoon Sook Kim & Todd Groome & Shinobu Nakagawa, 2006. "The Limits of Market-Based Risk Transfer and Implications for Managing Systemic Risks," IMF Working Papers 06/217, International Monetary Fund.

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