Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment

Contents:

Author Info

  • Lars Jonung
  • Werner Roeger

Abstract

This report estimates possible macroeconomic effects of a pandemic taking place in the EU in 2006, using a quarterly macroeconomic model. The macroeconomic costs of a pandemic, that is the cost in terms of production lost due to illness and death measured as reductions in GDP growth and/or declines in the level of GDP, are quantified in various pandemic scenarios. We focus on two sectors of the European economy that are expected to be particularly severely hit, tourism and trade. The results are compared with those obtained in similar studies. Our basic conclusion is that, although a pandemic would take a huge toll in human suffering, it would most likely not be a severe threat to the European macroeconomy.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication708_en.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission in its series European Economy - Economic Papers with number 251.

as in new window
Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0251

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Coomunivcations Unit, B-1049 Bruxelles / Brussels
Fax: +32 2 298.08.23
Email:
Web page: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/index_en.htm
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Pandemics; avian flu; Spanish influenza; macroeconomic model; Jonung; Roeger;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Werner R�ger & Jan in 't Veld, 2002. "Some selected simulation experiments with the European Commission's QUEST model," European Economy - Economic Papers 178, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  2. Douglas Almond & Bhashkar Mazumder, 2005. "The 1918 Influenza Pandemic and Subsequent Health Outcomes: An Analysis of SIPP Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 258-262, May.
  3. Forslid, Rikard, 2005. "Can we Trust Private Firms as Suppliers of Vaccines for the Avian Influenza?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4980, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Brainerd, Elizabeth & Siegler, Mark V, 2003. "The Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 3791, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Clive Bell & Maureen Lewis, 2005. "The Economic Implications of Epidemics Old and New," Working Papers 54, Center for Global Development.
  6. Bell, Clive & Gersbach, Hans, 2004. "Growth and Epidemic Diseases," CEPR Discussion Papers 4800, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Alwyn Young, 2004. "The Gift of the Dying: The Tragedy of AIDS and the Welfare of Future African Generations," NBER Working Papers 10991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Nicolas R. Blancher & François Haas & John Kiff & Oksana Khadarina & Paul S. Mills & Parmeshwar Ramlogan & William Lee & Yoon Sook Kim & Todd Groome & Shinobu Nakagawa, 2006. "The Limits of Market-Based Risk Transfer and Implications for Managing Systemic Risks," IMF Working Papers 06/217, International Monetary Fund.
  2. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2011. "The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-224, Monash University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  3. Simon Wren-Lewis & Marcus Keogh-Brown, 2009. "The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic," Economics Series Working Papers 431, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0251

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ECFIN INFO).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.