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Stock returns and inflation revisited: An evaluation of the inflation illusion hypothesis

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  • Lee, Bong Soo
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    Abstract

    Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain the stock return-inflation relation. The Modigliani and Cohn's inflation illusion hypothesis has received renewed attention. Another hypothesis is the two-regime hypothesis. We reexamine these hypotheses using long sample data of the US and international data. We find that the inflation illusion hypothesis can explain the post-war negative stock return-inflation relation, but it is not compatible with the pre-war positive relation. Using a structural VAR identification method, we show that there are two regimes with positive and negative stock return-inflation relations not only in each period of the US but also in every developed country we consider. This seems inconsistent with the inflation illusion hypothesis that predicts only a negative relation.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Banking & Finance.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 6 (June)
    Pages: 1257-1273

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:6:p:1257-1273

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf

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    Keywords: Stock returns Inflation Inflation illusion Structural VAR;

    References

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    Cited by:
    1. Valcarcel, Victor J., 2012. "The dynamic adjustments of stock prices to inflation disturbances," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 117-144.
    2. Gwangheon Hong & Bong Lee, 2013. "Does Inflation Illusion Explain the Relation between REITs and Inflation?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 123-151, July.
    3. Oxman, Jeffrey, 2012. "Price inflation and stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 385-388.
    4. Lee, Bong Soo & Ryu, Doojin, 2012. "Stock returns and implied volatility: A new VAR approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-51, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    5. Acker, Daniella & Duck, Nigel W., 2013. "Inflation illusion and the US dividend yield: Some further evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 235-254.
    6. Ricardo M. Sousa, 2010. "Collateralizable Wealth, Asset Returns, and Systemic Risk: International Evidence," NIPE Working Papers 15/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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