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On the Impact of Inflation and Exchange Rate on Conditional Stock Market Volatility: A Re-Assessment

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  • Yaya, OlaOluwa S
  • Shittu, Olanrewaju I

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of inflation and exchange rate on conditional stock market volatility. Sentana’s QGARCH model is generalized to include the asymmetries in inflation and exchange rate that are not allowed in linear GARCH (p, q) model of Bollerslev (1986). Nonlinear specifications of QGARCH model then show the significant relationship of inflation and exchange rate to conditional stock market volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Yaya, OlaOluwa S & Shittu, Olanrewaju I, 2010. "On the Impact of Inflation and Exchange Rate on Conditional Stock Market Volatility: A Re-Assessment," MPRA Paper 88759, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:88759
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/88759/1/MPRA_paper_88759.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-1153, December.
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    3. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    4. Kaul, Gautam, 1987. "Stock returns and inflation : The role of the monetary sector," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 253-276, June.
    5. Hamilton, James D & Gang, Lin, 1996. "Stock Market Volatility and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 573-593, Sept.-Oct.
    6. Enrique Sentana, 1995. "Quadratic ARCH Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(4), pages 639-661.
    7. Huang, Roger D & Kracaw, William A, 1984. "Stock Market Returns and Real Activity: A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 267-273, March.
    8. Nicole Davis & Ali Kutan, 2003. "Inflation and output as predictors of stock returns and volatility: international evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(9), pages 693-700.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2016. "Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility and Stock Prices Volatility: Evidence from Nigeria, 1986-2012," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 6(6), pages 1-4.
    2. Rilwan Sakariyahu & Audrey Paterson & Eleni Chatzivgeri & Rodiat Lawal, 2024. "Chasing noise in the stock market: an inquiry into the dynamics of investor sentiment and asset pricing," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 135-169, January.
    3. Md Sharif Hossain, & Md.Thasinul Abedin, 2017. "Socio-economy and stock market volatility," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11, August.
    4. Emenike Kalu O. & Odili Okwuchukwu, 2014. "Stock Market Return Volatility and Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria," International Journal of Empirical Finance, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(2), pages 75-82.
    5. Rilwan Sakariyahu & Mohamed Sherif & Audrey Paterson & Eleni Chatzivgeri, 2021. "Sentiment‐Apt investors and UK sector returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3321-3351, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional Volatility; Exchange rates; Inflation rates; Quadratic-GARCH; Stock prices; volatility clustering.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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