Volatility Dynamics of the UK Business Cycle: a Multivariate Asymmetric Garch Approach
AbstractThis paper analyses thé volatility dynamics of thé UK business cycle by proposing four new multivariate asymmetric GARCH models that not only capture asymmetric volatility but aso time-varying corrélations. The results indicate the existence of asymmetric volatility, but it is sensitive to the structure of the conditional variance. It is also found that correlations and volatility are usually higher around the recession phase of the UK economy. These have important implications for macroeconomic policy and forecasting for business cycle.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by CEPII research center in its journal Economie Internationale.
Volume (Year): (2009)
Issue (Month): 117 ()
Business cycle asymmetries; constant correlations; multivariate asymmetric GARCH; time-varying correlations;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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- Khalfaoui, R & Boutahar, M, 2012.
"Portfolio risk evaluation: An approach based on dynamic conditional correlations models and wavelet multiresolution analysis,"
41624, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rabeh Khalfaoui & Mohammed Boutahar, 2012. "Portfolio Risk Evaluation An Approach Based on Dynamic Conditional Correlations Models and Wavelet Multi-Resolution Analysis," AMSE Working Papers 1208, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France.
- R. Khalfaoui & M. Boutahar, 2012. "Portfolio Risk Evaluation: An Approach Based on Dynamic Conditional Correlations Models and Wavelet Multi-Resolution Analysis," Working Papers halshs-00793068, HAL.
- Almeida, Pedro Cameira de & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2011.
"A assimetria dos ciclos económicos: Evidência internacional usando o teste triples
[The asymmetry of business cycles: International evidence using triples test]," MPRA Paper 35208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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