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Explaining Output Volatility: The Case of Taxation

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  • Olaf Posch

Abstract

This paper presents empirical evidence against the popular perception that macro volatility is exogenous. We obtain tax effects on macro aggregates in the stochastic neoclassical model. Taxes are shown to affect the second moment of output growth rates without affecting the first moment. Exploiting heterogeneity patterns in a panel of OECD countries, we estimate tax effects on macro volatility, explicitly modeling the unobserved variance process. We find a strong empirical link between taxes and output volatility. Accounting for non-stationarity of taxes and output volatility, we find empirical evidence of a cointegrating relationship.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2751.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2751

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Keywords: macroeconomic volatility; tax effects; continuous-time DSGE models;

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Cited by:
  1. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2010. "Booms, Recessions And Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look At Investment Decisions Under Cyclical Uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(s1), pages 290-317, 07.
  2. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2010. "On the Non-Causal Link between Volatility and Growth," Working Papers 1002, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 08 Mar 2010.
  3. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2011. "On the link between volatility and growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 285-308, December.
  4. Wälde, Klaus & Launov, Andrey & Posch, Olaf, 2013. "On the estimation of the volatility-growth link," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79835, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  5. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2006. "Natural Volatility, Welfare and Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 1748, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Veraart, Almut E.D., 2010. "Inference For The Jump Part Of Quadratic Variation Of Itô Semimartingales," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(02), pages 331-368, April.
  7. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Posch, Olaf, 2009. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 196-210, December.
  9. Robert Feicht & Wolfgang Stummer, 2010. "Complete Closed-form Solution to a Stochastic Growth Model and Corresponding Speed of Economic Recovery preliminary," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_041, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  10. Attinasi, Maria-Grazia & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rieth, Malte, 2011. "Labour tax progressivity and output volatility: evidence from OECD countries," Working Paper Series 1380, European Central Bank.

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