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Explaining Output Volatility: The Case of Taxation

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  • Olaf Posch

Abstract

This paper presents empirical evidence against the popular perception that macro volatility is exogenous. We obtain tax effects on macro aggregates in the stochastic neoclassical model. Taxes are shown to affect the second moment of output growth rates without affecting the first moment. Exploiting heterogeneity patterns in a panel of OECD countries, we estimate tax effects on macro volatility, explicitly modeling the unobserved variance process. We find a strong empirical link between taxes and output volatility. Accounting for non-stationarity of taxes and output volatility, we find empirical evidence of a cointegrating relationship.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2751.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2751

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Keywords: macroeconomic volatility; tax effects; continuous-time DSGE models;

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Cited by:
  1. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Posch, Olaf, 2009. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 196-210, December.
  3. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2006. "Natural volatility, welfare and taxation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 95, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. Attinasi, Maria-Grazia & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rieth, Malte, 2011. "Labour tax progressivity and output volatility: evidence from OECD countries," Working Paper Series 1380, European Central Bank.
  5. Michael Funke & Yu-Fu Chen, 2009. "Booms, Recessions and Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look at Investment Decisions under Cyclical Uncertainty," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20908, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  6. Wälde, Klaus & Launov, Andrey & Posch, Olaf, 2013. "On the estimation of the volatility-growth link," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79835, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  7. Robert Feicht & Wolfgang Stummer, 2010. "Complete Closed-form Solution to a Stochastic Growth Model and Corresponding Speed of Economic Recovery preliminary," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_041, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  8. Almut Veraart, 2008. "Inference for the jump part of quadratic variation of Itô semimartingales," CREATES Research Papers 2008-17, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  9. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2009. "On the non-causal link between volatility and growth," Economics Working Papers 2009-10, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  10. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2011. "On the link between volatility and growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 285-308, December.

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