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Explaining output volatility: The case of taxation

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  • Olaf Posch

    ()
    (School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus, Denmark and CREATES)

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of taxation on output volatility in OECD countries to shed light on the sources of observed heterogeneity over time and across countries. To this end, we derive tax effects on macro aggregates in a stochastic neoclassical model. As a result, taxes are shown to affect the second moment of output growth rates without (long-run) effects on the first moment. Taking the model to the data, we exploit observed heterogeneity patterns to estimate effects of tax rates on macro volatility using panel estimation, explicitly modeling the unobserved variance process. We find a strong empirical link between effective tax rates and output volatility, with some evidence of a cointegrating relationship. In accordance with theory, taxes on labor income and corporate income empirically are found to be negatively related to volatility of macro aggregates whereas the capital tax ratio has positive effects.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2008-04.

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Length: 73
Date of creation: 18 Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2008-04

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Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

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Keywords: Macroeconomic volatility; Tax effects; Big moderation;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2011. "On the link between volatility and growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 285-308, December.
  2. Yu-Fu Chen & Michael Funke, 2009. "Booms, Recessions and Financial Turmoil: A Fresh Look at Investment Decisions under Cyclical Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 2759, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2006. "Natural Volatility, Welfare and Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 1748, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Posch, Olaf, 2009. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 196-210, December.
  5. Attinasi, Maria-Grazia & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rieth, Malte, 2011. "Labour tax progressivity and output volatility: evidence from OECD countries," Working Paper Series 1380, European Central Bank.
  6. Wälde, Klaus & Launov, Andrey & Posch, Olaf, 2013. "On the estimation of the volatility-growth link," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79835, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  7. Almut Veraart, 2008. "Inference for the jump part of quadratic variation of Itô semimartingales," CREATES Research Papers 2008-17, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  8. Olaf Posch & Klaus Wälde, 2010. "On the Non-Causal Link between Volatility and Growth," Working Papers 1002, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 08 Mar 2010.
  9. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Robert Feicht & Wolfgang Stummer, 2010. "Complete Closed-form Solution to a Stochastic Growth Model and Corresponding Speed of Economic Recovery preliminary," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_041, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.

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