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What Ties Return Volatilities to Price Valuations and Fundamentals?

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  • Alexander David
  • Pietro Veronesi
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    Abstract

    Stock and Treasury bond comovement, volatilities, and their relations to their price valuations and fundamentals change stochastically over time, both in magnitude and direction. These stochastic changes are explained by a general equilibrium model in which agents learn about composite economic and inflation regimes. We estimate our model using both fundamentals and asset prices, and find that inflation news signal either positive or negative future real economic growth depending on the times, thereby affecting the direction of stock/bond comovement. The learning dynamics generate strong non-linearities between volatilities and price valuations. We find empirical support for numerous predictions of the model.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 15563.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2009
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    Publication status: published as Journal of Political Economy, Summer 2013, 121, 4, 682 - 746
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15563

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    Cited by:
    1. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337.
    2. Conrad, Christian & Loch, Karin, 2012. "Anticipating Long-Term Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 0535, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    3. Banegas, Ayelen & Gillen, Ben & Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ, 2013. "The cross section of conditional mutual fund performance in European stock markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 699-726.
    4. John M Maheu & Thomas H McCurdy & Yong Song, 2010. "Components of bull and bear markets: bull corrections and bear rallies," Working Papers tecipa-402, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    5. Yiqun Mou & Lars A. Lochstoer & Michael Johannes, 2011. "Learning about Consumption Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 306, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Bakshi, Gurdip & Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2012. "Variance bounds on the permanent and transitory components of stochastic discount factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 191-208.
    7. Paye, Bradley S., 2012. "‘Déjà vol’: Predictive regressions for aggregate stock market volatility using macroeconomic variables," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 527-546.
    8. Bakshi, Gurdip & Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2011. "Variance Bounds on the Permanent and Transitory Components of Stochastic Discount Factors," Working Paper Series 2011-11, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.

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