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Real Rates, Expected Inflation, and Inflation Risk Premia

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Author Info
Martin D. D. Evans (Department of Economics, Georgetown University, Washington DC 20057)
Abstract

This paper studies the term structure of real rates, expected inflation, and inflation risk premia. The analysis is based on new estimates of the real term structure derived from the prices of index-linked and nominal debt in the U.K. I find strong evidence to reject both the Fisher Hypothesis and versions of the Expectations Hypothesis for real rates. The estimates also imply the presence of time-varying inflation risk premia throughout the term structure. Copyright The American Finance Association 1998.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 53 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 187-218
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:187-218

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  1. Nicola Anderson & John Sleath, . "New estimates of the UK real and nominal yield curves," Bank of England working papers 126, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  2. Peter S. Spiro, 2003. "Evidence on inflation expectations from Canadian real return bonds," Macroeconomics 0312004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  3. Mauricio Larraín, 2007. "Inflation Compensation and Inflation Expectations in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 421, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  4. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2004. "The term structure of real rates and expected inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Jacob Ejsing & Juan Angel García & Thomas Werner, 2007. "The term structure of euro area break-even inflation rates - the impact of seasonality," Working Paper Series 830, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  6. William R. Emmons, 2000. "The information content of Treasury inflation-indexed securities," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 25-38. [Downloadable!]
  7. Peter N Smith & Michael R Wickens, . "Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors," Discussion Papers 02/03, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Christensen, Ian & Frédéric Dion & Christopher Reid, 2004. "Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate," Working Papers 04-43, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  9. Juan Angel Garcia & Adrian van Rixtel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a central bank perspective," Banco de España Occasional Papers 0705, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Geert Bekaert & Min Wei & Yuhang Xing, 2002. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 8795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Adrien Verdelhan, 2006. "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Boston University - Department of Economics - Macroeconomics Working Papers Series WP2006-047, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. J. Huston McCulloch, 2001. "The Inflation Premium implicit in the US Real and Nominal," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 210, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2007. "Mortage interest rate dispersion in the euro area," Working Paper Series 734, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Alvarez, Fernando & Jermann, Urban J., 2001. "The Size of the Permanent Component of Asset Pricing Kernels," Working Papers 01-4, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center. [Downloadable!]
  15. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Working Papers 12609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2006. "The term structure of inflation risk premia and macroeconomic dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 203, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Dong Fu, 2007. "Inflation expectations, real interest rate and risk premiums -- evidence from bond market and consumer survey data," Working Papers 0705, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  18. Neil Arnwine, 2004. "Fisher Equation and Output Growth," Departmental Working Papers 0408, Bilkent University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  19. Brückner, Markus & Gerling, Kerstin & Grüner, Hans Peter, 2007. "Wealth Inequality and Credit Markets: Evidence from Three Industrialized Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 6485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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