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Revisiting the shape of the yield curve: the effect of interest rate volatility

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Author Info

  • Christiansen, Charlotte

    ()
    (Department of Finance, Aarhus School of Business)

  • Lund, Jesper

    (Nykredit Bank)

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between interest-rate volatility and the shape of the yield curve. The yield curve is parsimoniously described by its level, slope, and curvature. The level, the slope and the curvature are analyzed within a trivariate heteroskedastic model, where the conditional short-rate volatility is included in the mean specification. The slope and the curvature depend positively and significantly on the short-rate volatility. The effect of the interest rate volatility is more pronounced for the curvature than for the slope. Differences between subperiods are explored, as are differences across the maturity spectrum.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies in its series Finance Working Papers with number 02-3.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 13 Mar 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhb:aarfin:2002_003

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Postal: The Aarhus School of Business, Fuglesangs Allé 4, DK-8210 Aarhus V, Denmark
Fax: + 45 86 15 19 43
Web page: http://www.asb.dk/about/departments/bs.aspx
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Related research

Keywords: Multivariate GARCH-M; Short-Rate Volatility; Yield Curve Curvature; Yield Curve Shape; Yield Curve Slope;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

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  1. Robert F. Engle & Victor Ng & Michael Rothschild, 1988. "Asset Pricing with a Factor Arch Covariance Structure: Empirical Estimates for Treasury Bills," NBER Technical Working Papers 0065, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. "Time-Varying Volatility and the Dynamic Behavior of the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 336-49, August.
  3. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. " Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-82, September.
  4. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
  5. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May.
  6. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1996. "On Biases in Tests of the Expecations Hypothesis of the Term Structure Of Interest Rates," NBER Technical Working Papers 0191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2002. "Do Bonds Span the Fixed Income Markets? Theory and Evidence for Unspanned Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1685-1730, 08.
  8. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September.
  9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
  10. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  11. Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Daniel R. Smith & Christophe Parignon, 2004. "Modeling Yield-Factor Volatility," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 307, Econometric Society.
  2. Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Working papers 191, Banque de France.
  3. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2001. "Long Maturity Forward Rates," Finance Working Papers 01-12, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  4. Erlandsson, Ulf, 2002. "Regime Switches in Swedish Interest Rates," Working Papers 2002:5, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 26 Aug 2003.
  5. Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Yield-factor volatility models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3125-3144, October.
  6. Lenz, Rainer, 2010. "Analyse der Renditestrukturkurve: Zur Laufzeitenstruktur von Investitions- und Finanzierungsentscheidungen
    [Yield curve analysis]
    ," MPRA Paper 26621, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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