Revisiting the shape of the yield curve: the effect of interest rate volatility
AbstractThis paper examines the relationship between interest-rate volatility and the shape of the yield curve. The yield curve is parsimoniously described by its level, slope, and curvature. The level, the slope and the curvature are analyzed within a trivariate heteroskedastic model, where the conditional short-rate volatility is included in the mean speciﬁcation. The slope and the curvature depend positively and signiﬁcantly on the short-rate volatility. The effect of the interest rate volatility is more pronounced for the curvature than for the slope. Differences between subperiods are explored, as are differences across the maturity spectrum.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies in its series Finance Working Papers with number 02-3.
Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 13 Mar 2002
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: The Aarhus School of Business, Fuglesangs Allé 4, DK-8210 Aarhus V, Denmark
Fax: + 45 86 15 19 43
Web page: http://www.asb.dk/about/departments/bs.aspx
More information through EDIRC
Multivariate GARCH-M; Short-Rate Volatility; Yield Curve Curvature; Yield Curve Shape; Yield Curve Slope;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-06-24 (All new papers)
- NEP-FIN-2002-06-24 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2002-06-24 (Financial Markets)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F. & Ng, Victor K. & Rothschild, Michael, 1990.
"Asset pricing with a factor-arch covariance structure : Empirical estimates for treasury bills,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 213-237.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor Ng & Michael Rothschild, 1988. "Asset Pricing with a Factor Arch Covariance Structure: Empirical Estimates for Treasury Bills," NBER Technical Working Papers 0065, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David A. Marshall, 1996.
"On Biases in Tests of the Expecations Hypothesis of the Term Structure Of Interest Rates,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J. & Marshall, David A., 1997. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 309-348, June.
- Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick & David Marshall, 1996. "On biases in tests of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Paper Series, Issues in Financial Regulation WP-96-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993.
"Time-Varying Volatility and the Dynamic Behavior of the Term Structure,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 336-49, August.
- Robert F. Engle & Victor K. Ng, 1991. "Time-Varying Volatility and the Dynamic Behavior of the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 3682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991.
"Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May.
- Shiller, Robert & Campbell, John, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Scholarly Articles 3221490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," NBER Working Papers 3153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-92, September.
- Heath, David & Jarrow, Robert & Morton, Andrew, 1992. "Bond Pricing and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A New Methodology for Contingent Claims Valuation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 77-105, January.
- Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2002. "Do Bonds Span the Fixed Income Markets? Theory and Evidence for Unspanned Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1685-1730, 08.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. " Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-82, September.
- Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 1988. "Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Models with Time-Varying Covariances," Working papers 505, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2007.
"Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version,"
2007-19, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
- Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Working papers 191, Banque de France.
- Erlandsson, Ulf, 2002. "Regime Switches in Swedish Interest Rates," Working Papers 2002:5, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 26 Aug 2003.
- Lenz, Rainer, 2010.
"Analyse der Renditestrukturkurve: Zur Laufzeitenstruktur von Investitions- und Finanzierungsentscheidungen
[Yield curve analysis]," MPRA Paper 26621, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Christiansen, Charlotte, 2001. "Long Maturity Forward Rates," Finance Working Papers 01-12, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
- Daniel R. Smith & Christophe Parignon, 2004. "Modeling Yield-Factor Volatility," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 307, Econometric Society.
- Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Yield-factor volatility models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3125-3144, October.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Helle Vinbaek Stenholt).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.