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Revisiting the shape of the yield curve: the effect of interest rate volatility

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Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between interest-rate volatility and the shape of the yield curve. The yield curve is parsimoniously described by its level, slope, and curvature. The level, the slope and the curvature are analyzed within a trivariate heteroskedastic model, where the conditional short-rate volatility is included in the mean specification. The slope and the curvature depend positively and significantly on the short-rate volatility. The effect of the interest rate volatility is more pronounced for the curvature than for the slope. Differences between subperiods are explored, as are differences across the maturity spectrum.

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  • Christiansen, Charlotte & Lund, Jesper, 2002. "Revisiting the shape of the yield curve: the effect of interest rate volatility," Finance Working Papers 02-3, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhb:aarfin:2002_003
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    Cited by:

    1. Perignon, Christophe & Smith, Daniel R., 2007. "Yield-factor volatility models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3125-3144, October.
    2. Erlandsson, Ulf, 2002. "Regime Switches in Swedish Interest Rates," Working Papers 2002:5, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 04 Mar 2005.
    3. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2001. "Long Maturity Forward Rates," Finance Working Papers 01-12, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
    4. Mascia Bedendo & Lara Cathcart & Lina El‐Jahel, 2007. "The Slope Of The Term Structure Of Credit Spreads: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 237-257, June.
    5. Luciano Vereda & Hélio Lopes & Jessica Kubrusly & Adrian Pizzinga & Taofik Mohammed Ibrahim, 2014. "Yield Curve Forecasts and the Predictive Power of Macro Variables in a VAR Framework," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 3, pages 377-393.
    6. Philip Gray & Daniel R. Smith, 2008. "An Empirical Investigation of the Level Effect in Australian Interest Rates," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 33(1), pages 31-45, June.
    7. Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Working papers 191, Banque de France.
    8. Lenz, Rainer, 2010. "Analyse der Renditestrukturkurve: Zur Laufzeitenstruktur von Investitions- und Finanzierungsentscheidungen [Yield curve analysis]," MPRA Paper 26621, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Daniel R. Smith & Christophe Parignon, 2004. "Modeling Yield-Factor Volatility," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 307, Econometric Society.

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    Keywords

    Multivariate GARCH-M; Short-Rate Volatility; Yield Curve Curvature; Yield Curve Shape; Yield Curve Slope;
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