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Cointegrated VARMA models and forecasting US interest rates

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  • Christian Kascha
  • Carsten Trenkler

Abstract

We bring together some recent advances in the literature on vector autoregressive moving-average models creating a relatively simple specification and estimation strategy for the cointegrated case. We show that in the cointegrated case with fixed initial values there exists a so-called final moving representation which is usually simpler but not as parsimonious than the usual Echelon form. Furthermore, we proof that our specification strategy is consistent also in the case of cointegrated series. In order to show the potential usefulness of the method, we apply it to US interest rates and find that it generates forecasts superior to methods which do not allow for moving-average terms.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics - University of Zurich in its series ECON - Working Papers with number 033.

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Date of creation: Oct 2011
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Handle: RePEc:zur:econwp:033

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Keywords: Cointegration; VARMA models; forecasting;

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References

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  1. Carstensen, Kai, 2003. "Nonstationary term premia and cointegration of the term structure," Munich Reprints in Economics 19944, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  2. D.S. Poskitt, 2009. "Vector Autoregresive Moving Average Identification for Macroeconomic Modeling: Algorithms and Theory," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  3. Bauer, Dietmar & Wagner, Martin, 2005. "Autoregressive Approximations of Multiple Frequency I(1) Processes," Economics Series 174, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  4. Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1984. "Linear transformations of vector ARMA processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 283-293, December.
  5. Christian Kascha & Karel Mertens, 2006. "Business Cycle Analysis and VARMA models," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/37, European University Institute.
  6. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "Cointegration and the US term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 167-181, January.
  7. Poskitt, D.S., 2006. "On The Identification And Estimation Of Nonstationary And Cointegrated Armax Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(06), pages 1138-1175, December.
  8. Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February.
  9. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October.
  10. Athanasopoulos, George & Vahid, Farshid, 2008. "VARMA versus VAR for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 237-252, April.
  11. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Claessen, Holger, 1997. "Analysis of cointegrated VARMA processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 223-239, October.
  12. Bent Nielsen, 2001. "Order determination in general vector autoregressions," Economics Papers 2001-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  13. Shea, Gary S, 1992. "Benchmarking the Expectations Hypothesis of the Interest-Rate Term Structure: An Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 347-66, July.
  14. D. Poskitt & H. Lütkepohl, 1995. "Consistent Specification of Cointegrated Autoregressive Moving-Average Systems," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1995,54, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  15. Poskitt, D. S., 2003. "On the specification of cointegrated autoregressive moving-average forecasting systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 503-519.
  16. Michiel De Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Term structure forecasting using macro factors and forecast combination," International Finance Discussion Papers 993, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A.M.Robert Taylor, 2009. "Co-integration Rank Testing under Conditional Heteroskedasticity," CREATES Research Papers 2009-22, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  18. repec:wop:humbsf:1995-54 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 5(1), pages 105-153.
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