Cointegrated VARMA models and forecasting US interest rates
AbstractWe bring together some recent advances in the literature on vector autoregressive moving-average models creating a relatively simple specification and estimation strategy for the cointegrated case. We show that in the cointegrated case with fixed initial values there exists a so-called final moving representation which is usually simpler but not as parsimonious than the usual Echelon form. Furthermore, we proof that our specification strategy is consistent also in the case of cointegrated series. In order to show the potential usefulness of the method, we apply it to US interest rates and find that it generates forecasts superior to methods which do not allow for moving-average terms.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics - University of Zurich in its series ECON - Working Papers with number 033.
Date of creation: Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Cointegration; VARMA models; forecasting;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-10-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-10-15 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2011-10-15 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2011-10-15 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2011-10-15 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- D. Poskitt & H. Lütkepohl, 1995. "Consistent Specification of Cointegrated Autoregressive Moving-Average Systems," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1995,54, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Athanasopoulos, George & Vahid, Farshid, 2008.
"VARMA versus VAR for Macroeconomic Forecasting,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 237-252, April.
- George Athanasopoulos & Farshid Vahid, 2006. "VARMA versus VAR for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 4/06, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986.
"Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Scholarly Articles 3122490, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shea, Gary S, 1992. "Benchmarking the Expectations Hypothesis of the Interest-Rate Term Structure: An Analysis of Cointegration Vectors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 347-66, July.
- Christian Kascha & Karel Mertens, 2006.
"Business Cycle Analysis and VARMA models,"
Economics Working Papers
ECO2006/37, European University Institute.
- Poskitt, D. S., 2003. "On the specification of cointegrated autoregressive moving-average forecasting systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 503-519.
- Bent Nielsen, 2001.
"Order determination in general vector autoregressions,"
2001-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Bent Nielsen, 2001. "Order determination in general vector autoregressions," Economics Series Working Papers 2001-W10, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Hall, Anthony D & Anderson, Heather M & Granger, Clive W J, 1992. "A Cointegration Analysis of Treasury Bill Yields," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 116-26, February.
- Poskitt, D.S., 2006. "On The Identification And Estimation Of Nonstationary And Cointegrated Armax Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(06), pages 1138-1175, December.
- Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 1994. "Cointegration and the US term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 167-181, January.
- Michiel de Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2010.
"Term structure forecasting using macro factors and forecast combination,"
2010/01, Norges Bank.
- Michiel De Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Term structure forecasting using macro factors and forecast combination," International Finance Discussion Papers 993, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Carstensen, Kai, 2003. "Nonstationary term premia and cointegration of the term structure," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 409-413, September.
- Bauer, Dietmar & Wagner, Martin, 2005.
"Autoregressive Approximations of Multiple Frequency I(1) Processes,"
174, Institute for Advanced Studies.
- Dietmar Bauer & Martin Wagner, 2005. "Autoregressive Approximations of Multiple Frequency I(1) Processes," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/09, European University Institute.
- repec:wop:humbsf:1995-54 is not listed on IDEAS
- Lutkepohl, Helmut, 1984. "Linear transformations of vector ARMA processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 283-293, December.
- Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 5(1), pages 105-153.
- Giuseppe Cavaliere & Anders Rahbek & A.M.Robert Taylor, 2009.
"Co-integration Rank Testing under Conditional Heteroskedasticity,"
CREATES Research Papers
2009-22, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Rahbek, Anders & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2010. "Cointegration Rank Testing Under Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(06), pages 1719-1760, December.
- Lutkepohl, Helmut & Claessen, Holger, 1997. "Analysis of cointegrated VARMA processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 223-239, October.
- D.S. Poskitt, 2009. "Vector Autoregresive Moving Average Identification for Macroeconomic Modeling: Algorithms and Theory," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/09, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marita Kieser).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.