Vector Autoregresive Moving Average Identification for Macroeconomic Modeling: Algorithms and Theory
AbstractThis paper develops a new methodology for identifying the structure of VARMA time series models. The analysis proceeds by examining the echelon canonical form and presents a fully automatic data driven approach to model specification using a new technique to determine the Kronecker invariants. A novel feature of the inferential procedures developed here is that they work in terms of a canonical scalar ARMAX representation in which the exogenous regressors are given by predetermined contemporaneous and lagged values of other variables in the VARMA system. This feature facilitates the construction of algorithms which, from the perspective of macroeconomic modeling, are efficacious in that they do not use AR approximations at any stage. Algorithms that are applicable to both asymptotically stationary and unit-root, partially nonstationary (cointegrated) time series models are presented. A sequence of lemmas and theorems show that the algorithms are based on calculations that yield strongly consistent estimates.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics in its series Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers with number 12/09.
Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: 12 Nov 2009
Date of revision:
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Postal: PO Box 11E, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia
Web page: http://www.buseco.monash.edu.au/depts/ebs/
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
- C87 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Econometric Software
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-12-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2009-12-11 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2009-12-11 (Econometric Time Series)
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