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Business cycle analysis and VARMA models

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  • Kascha, Christian
  • Mertens, Karel

Abstract

Can long-run identified structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) discriminate between competing models in practice? Several authors have suggested SVARs fail partly because they are finite-order approximations to infinite-order processes. We estimate vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) and state space models, which are not misspecified, using simulated data and compare true with estimated impulse responses of hours worked to a technology shock. We find few gains from using VARMA models. However, state space algorithms can outperform SVARs. In particular, the CCA subspace method consistently yields lower mean squared errors, although even these estimates remain too imprecise for reliable inference. The qualitative differences for algorithms based on different representations are small. The comparison with estimation methods without specification error suggests that the main problem is not one of working with a VAR approximation. The properties of the processes used in the literature make identification via long-run restrictions difficult for any method.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

Volume (Year): 33 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 267-282

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Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:33:y:2009:i:2:p:267-282

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

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Keywords: Structural VARs VARMA State space models Business cycles;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alfredo García‐Hiernaux, 2011. "Forecasting linear dynamical systems using subspace methods," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(5), pages 462-468, 09.
  2. Christian Kascha & Carsten Trenkler, 2011. "Cointegrated VARMA models and forecasting US interest rates," ECON - Working Papers 033, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
  3. Costantini, Mauro & Gunter, Ulrich & Kunst, Robert M., 2012. "Forecast Combination Based on Multiple Encompassing Tests in a Macroeconomic DSGE-VAR System," Economics Series 292, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  4. Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Alfonso Novales Cinca, 2009. "State-Uncertainty preferences and the Risk Premium in the Exchange rate market," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 0917, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
  5. Christopher Gust & Robert Vigfusson, 2009. "The power of long-run structural VARs," International Finance Discussion Papers 978, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Jean-Marie Dufour & Tarek Jouini, 2011. "Asymptotic Distributions for Some Quasi-Efficient Estimators in Echelon VARMA Models," CIRANO Working Papers 2011s-25, CIRANO.
  7. D.S. Poskitt & Wenying Yao, 2012. "VAR Modeling and Business Cycle Analysis: A Taxonomy of Errors," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  8. Mertens, Elmar, 2012. "Are spectral estimators useful for long-run restrictions in SVARs?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1831-1844.

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