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How to Advance Theory with Structural VARs: Use the Sims-Cogley-Nason Approach

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Patrick J. Kehoe

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Abstract

The common approach to evaluating a model in the structural VAR literature is to compare the impulse responses from structural VARs run on the data to the theoretical impulse responses from the model. The Sims-Cogley-Nason approach instead compares the structural VARs run on the data to identical structural VARs run on data from the model of the same length as the actual data. Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan (2006) argue that the inappropriate comparison made by the common approach is the root of the problems in the SVAR literature. In practice, the problems can be solved simply. Switching from the common approach to the Sims-Cogley-Nason approach basically involves changing a few lines of computer code and a few lines of text. This switch will vastly increase the value of the structural VAR literature for economic theory.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12575.

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Date of creation: Oct 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12575

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  1. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2008. "The Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated U.S. Tax Policy Shocks: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/05, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 3008. "Welfare-Maximizing Monetary Policy Under Parameter Uncertainty," CAMA Working Papers 2008-16, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Müller & Sarah Stölting, 2007. "Is the New Keynesian Phillips curve flat?," Working Paper Series 809, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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