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Is the New Keynesian Phillips curve flat?

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  • Kuester, Keith
  • Müller, Gernot J.
  • Stölting, Sarah

Abstract

This paper provides Monte Carlo evidence that GMM estimates of the New Keynesian Phillips curve are biased towards finding too much price rigidity if cost-push shocks are auto-correlated. This result may reconcile GMM estimates with the microevidence on price rigidities.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuester, Keith & Müller, Gernot J. & Stölting, Sarah, 2009. "Is the New Keynesian Phillips curve flat?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 39-41, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:103:y:2009:i:1:p:39-41
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    Cited by:

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    2. Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2013. "Taylor Rule or optimal timeless policy? Reconsidering the Fed's behavior since 1982," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 113-123.
    3. Daniela Milučká, 2014. "Inflation dynamics in the Czech Republic: Estimation of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," International Journal of Economic Sciences, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(2), pages 53-70.
    4. Sophocles Mavroeidis & Mikkel Plagborg-Møller & James H. Stock, 2014. "Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 124-188, March.
    5. Cole, Stephen J., 2018. "The effectiveness of central bank forward guidance under inflation and price-level targeting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 146-161.
    6. Stephan Sauer, 2010. "Discretion Rather Than Rules? When Is Discretionary Policymaking Better Than the Timeless Perspective?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(2), pages 1-29, June.
    7. Carlos A. Medel, 2018. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 331-371, July.
    8. Patrick Minford & Zhirong Ou & Michael Wickens, 2015. "Revisiting the Great Moderation: Policy or Luck?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 197-223, April.
    9. Martina Cecioni, 2010. "Firm entry, competitive pressures and the US inflation dynamics," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 773, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    10. Jean-Paul L'Huillier & William R. Zame, 2015. "The Flattening of the Phillips Curve and the Learning Problem of the Central Bank," EIEF Working Papers Series 1503, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Oct 2014.
    11. Oinonen, Sami & Vilmi, Lauri, 2021. "Analysing euro area inflation outlook with the Phillips curve," BoF Economics Review 5/2021, Bank of Finland.
    12. Medel, Carlos A., 2015. "A Critical Review of Posch, J. and F. Rumler (2015), 'Semi-Structural Forecasting of UK Inflation Based on the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve,' Journal of Forecasting 34(2): 145-62," MPRA Paper 65665, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Dino Martellato, 2008. "Economic Integration and Macroeconomic Convergence in the Euro Area," Working Papers 2008_34, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    14. Krogh, Tord S., 2015. "Macro frictions and theoretical identification of the New Keynesian Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 191-204.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price rigidities New Keynesian Phillips curve Cost-push shocks GMM estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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