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Are Spectral Estimators Useful for Implementing Long-Run Restrictions in SVARs?

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  • Elmar Mertens

    ()
    (Study Center Gerzensee and University of Lausanne)

Abstract

No, not really. Responding to lingering concerns about the reliability of SVARs, Christiano et al (NBER Macro Annual, 2006, "CEV") propose to combine OLS estimates of a VAR with a spectral estimate of long-run variance. In principle, this could help alleviate specification problems of SVARs in identifying long-run shocks. But in practice, spectral estimators suffer from small sample biases similar to those from VARs. Moreover, the spectral estimates contain information about serial correlation in VAR residuals and the VAR dynamics must be adjusted accordingly. Otherwise, a naive application of the CEV procedure would misrepresent the data's variance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee in its series Working Papers with number 08.01.

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Length: 43 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:0801

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References

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  1. Jordi Gali, 1996. "Technology, Employment, and the Business Cycle: Do Technology Shocks Explain Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 5721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2006. "Does information help recovering structural shocks from past observations?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 455-465, 04-05.
  3. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J. & McGrattan, Ellen R., 2008. "Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1337-1352, November.
  4. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Sun, Yixiao & Jin, Sainan, 2004. "Spectral Density Estimation and Robust Hypothesis Testing Using Steep Origin Kernels Without Truncation," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6mf9q2rt, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  5. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Galí, Jordi & Rabanal, Pau, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Post-War US Data?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4522, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
  8. Fabio Canova & Gianni de Nicoló, 1999. "On the sources of business cycles in the G-7," Economics Working Papers 459, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2000.
  9. Federico Ravenna, 2006. "Vector autoregressions and reduced form representations of DSGE models," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0619, Banco de Espa�a.
  10. Jordi Gali & Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBS Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," NBER Working Papers 10636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Timothy Cogley & James M. Nason, 1993. "Output dynamics in real business cycle models," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 93-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  12. Li, Lei M., 2005. "Factorization of moving-average spectral densities by state-space representations and stacking," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 425-438, October.
  13. Cooley, Thomas F. & Dwyer, Mark, 1998. "Business cycle analysis without much theory A look at structural VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 57-88.
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Cited by:
  1. Christian Kascha & Karel Mertens, 2008. "Business cycle analysis and VARMA models," Working Paper 2008/05, Norges Bank.
  2. Christopher Gust & Robert Vigfusson, 2009. "The power of long-run structural VARs," International Finance Discussion Papers 978, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Mertens, Elmar, 2012. "Are spectral estimators useful for long-run restrictions in SVARs?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1831-1844.

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