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Imperfect Information and Hidden Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Levine

    (University of Surrey)

  • Joseph Pearlman

    (City University)

  • Stephen Wright

    (Birkbeck College)

  • Bo Yang

    (Swansea University)

Abstract

In a DSGE rational expectations model, the agents’ assumed information sets are crucial for both the dynamics of the solution and for whether a SVAR econometrician can infer impulse responses to structural shocks. We adopt a heterogeneous agent, incomplete markets general framework where agents have imperfect and idiosyncratic information sets. In the limiting empirically plausible case of extreme heterogeneity, we show that a unique finite state space solution exists taking the same form as a single agent problem. The solution induces higher-order dynamics, hidden both from the agents and the econometrician, that would be absent in a perfect information economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Stephen Wright & Bo Yang, 2023. "Imperfect Information and Hidden Dynamics," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1223, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  • Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:1223
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    File URL: https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/2023/DP12-23.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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